【81% drop ≠ cheap, 48% rally ≠ chasing: SUI makes me reconsider the illusion of "oversold”】【
Many people ask me in the back end: SUI is down 81% from ATH—now it’s just around $1. Does that mean it’s oversold? Can I buy the dip?
Honestly, I thought the same.
But look at the data—up 48% over the past 7 days, choppy consolidation today, and trading volume is even unusually inflated. What does that tell you? It means you’re not the only one thinking it’s "cheap" and that it "should bounce." When everyone is staring at the same number, that number stops meaning much.
Low valuation has never been a reason to buy. Low valuation + the logic holds + capital is willing to come—that’s what matters.
So what’s SUI’s logic? Move language, an L1 chain, and a Meta-backed team—these labels sound impressive. But what you really need to ask is: who’s using it? What are they using it for? Can it support itself?
TVL is definitely rising, and the average daily number of transactions isn’t low either. But there’s a problem here: how much of that is water? I’ve seen too much TVL that gets artificially inflated, and I’ve also seen the kind of fake prosperity produced by .memecoin mining. Is this SUI pump also driven, at least in part, by that?
You say the technology is strong—I believe you. The developer experience with the Move language really is a level more comfortable than EVM chains. But strong tech ≠ people use it. People use it ≠ the price rises. There’s a huge gap in between.
So right now, I’m just watching SUI. I’m not buying, but I’m also not rushing to draw conclusions. The key is to watch the trading volume—if it tapers off and consolidates with shrinking volume, then this move is driven by memecoin sentiment; if volume keeps expanding, then it suggests there’s something real underneath.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you brave enough for this move? Does it tempt you to jump in?
Many people ask me in the back end: SUI is down 81% from ATH—now it’s just around $1. Does that mean it’s oversold? Can I buy the dip?
Honestly, I thought the same.
But look at the data—up 48% over the past 7 days, choppy consolidation today, and trading volume is even unusually inflated. What does that tell you? It means you’re not the only one thinking it’s "cheap" and that it "should bounce." When everyone is staring at the same number, that number stops meaning much.
Low valuation has never been a reason to buy. Low valuation + the logic holds + capital is willing to come—that’s what matters.
So what’s SUI’s logic? Move language, an L1 chain, and a Meta-backed team—these labels sound impressive. But what you really need to ask is: who’s using it? What are they using it for? Can it support itself?
TVL is definitely rising, and the average daily number of transactions isn’t low either. But there’s a problem here: how much of that is water? I’ve seen too much TVL that gets artificially inflated, and I’ve also seen the kind of fake prosperity produced by .memecoin mining. Is this SUI pump also driven, at least in part, by that?
You say the technology is strong—I believe you. The developer experience with the Move language really is a level more comfortable than EVM chains. But strong tech ≠ people use it. People use it ≠ the price rises. There’s a huge gap in between.
So right now, I’m just watching SUI. I’m not buying, but I’m also not rushing to draw conclusions. The key is to watch the trading volume—if it tapers off and consolidates with shrinking volume, then this move is driven by memecoin sentiment; if volume keeps expanding, then it suggests there’s something real underneath.
What’s your mindset right now? Are you brave enough for this move? Does it tempt you to jump in?