šŸ“° Just said Kalshi’s market-making campaign could wash away wash-trading accusations, and now it’s being ā€œbitten backā€: is the regulator fishing, or are the market makers pulling tricks?

Just a couple of days ago I talked about this, and now there’s new development. Kalshi denies the allegations of wash trading, and instead argues that its high-frequency trading in perpetual ether futures contracts as part of its market-making model is normal market behavior. However, the explanation has also raised fresh regulatory concerns. The root of the issue is that the crypto market-making mechanism itself makes high-frequency trading easily look like wash trading—orders ping-pong back and forth, the price isn’t very sensitive, but in essence it’s providing liquidity. Against the backdrop of regulators cracking down on high-frequency trading, Kalshi’s defense has unfortunately hit the regulators’ pain points. What does it mean? Regulators may start paying more attention to the specific transaction patterns of market makers, rather than bluntly treating everything as wash trading. For market makers as a whole, that means either learning to make trades ā€œsmarter,ā€ or accepting higher compliance costs.

šŸ’” My take: In the short term, regulators will likely keep targeting Kalshi, but in the long run, if Kalshi can prove that its high-frequency trading genuinely serves market liquidity rather than manipulating prices, the incident could actually become a positive example pushing for compliance in crypto market making. If, as a result, regulators begin conducting systematic reviews of all market makers, this judgment would be nullified.

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āš ļø Not investment advice; predictions are for reference only