Early this morning, Trump made remarks at the United Nations saying he would “completely destroy” Iran. Then, turning around, U.S. and Iranian representatives met again in New York. Now the macro picture is just that twisted: all talk is about war, while their hands are busy doing business.
This $BTC cycle isn’t actually that bad. BofA said that if Iran keeps stirring up trouble in the conflict, Brent crude could rise to $150. If oil spikes, inflation expectations will swing back, and the pace of rate cuts would likely be pushed further out—near term, risk assets may get pressured. But on the other hand, a bunch of funds are looking for hard assets to hedge against inflation; when gold rallies, $BTC generally isn’t missing from the party.
One more detail is pretty interesting: Trump publicly supports banning diesel exports, simply because diesel prices hit a record high. Energy-driven inflation has been pushed all the way to the policy level—at this point, I wouldn’t recommend going all in. Keeping some “ammunition” is always the right move.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, Ukraine just blew up two Russian refineries. As the global refining capacity gap widens, oil price volatility isn’t likely to come down in the short term—so the market won’t be calm.
$ETH is just wobbling with the broader market. Why chase after a surge? Isn’t it better to wait for a pullback before entering?
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #cryptocurrency
This $BTC cycle isn’t actually that bad. BofA said that if Iran keeps stirring up trouble in the conflict, Brent crude could rise to $150. If oil spikes, inflation expectations will swing back, and the pace of rate cuts would likely be pushed further out—near term, risk assets may get pressured. But on the other hand, a bunch of funds are looking for hard assets to hedge against inflation; when gold rallies, $BTC generally isn’t missing from the party.
One more detail is pretty interesting: Trump publicly supports banning diesel exports, simply because diesel prices hit a record high. Energy-driven inflation has been pushed all the way to the policy level—at this point, I wouldn’t recommend going all in. Keeping some “ammunition” is always the right move.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, Ukraine just blew up two Russian refineries. As the global refining capacity gap widens, oil price volatility isn’t likely to come down in the short term—so the market won’t be calm.
$ETH is just wobbling with the broader market. Why chase after a surge? Isn’t it better to wait for a pullback before entering?
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #cryptocurrency