Last night, at the United Nations headquarters in New York, U.S. and Iranian officials met behind closed doors for three hours. Afterward, Trump told reporters—“very smooth” “productive,” and added: “We’ll talk again soon.”
At the same time, the Nasdaq closed up 0.45% at 27,244 points, marking a second consecutive day of closing-high records.
Storage-chip stocks collectively erupted in unrest. SanDisk rose 6.82%, Micron Technology gained 5%, SK hynix climbed 3.45%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped more than 2% to a new high since mid-July.
Now look at Bitcoin—above $86,000, it remained completely unmoved.
Breaking it down, the transmission chain is very clear.
Layer one: easing geopolitical tensions.
As the U.S. and Iran moved from an “armed standoff” to “talks on the table,” what was the market’s first reaction? Oil prices collapsed. Brent and WTI crude have fallen for the fifth straight day, and U.S. crude dropped below $95.
The risk premium is being systematically drained away.
Layer two: a rebound in risk appetite.
Oil prices falling → lower inflation expectations → capital flowing from safe-haven assets (gold, U.S. Treasuries) into risk assets. The Nasdaq hitting new highs and storage chips going on a rampage are the most direct indicators of improving risk appetite.
Micron’s stock has surged this year in a remarkable way. For the first time, Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage of Sandisk with a “Buy” rating and a target price of $2,400. The analyst’s exact words: “AI is turning NAND flash memory from a ‘cheap commodity’ into a key component of AI infrastructure.”
Layer three: crypto taking over (i.e., absorbing and extending the move).
BTC recently held steady above 86,000. In the past seven days alone, it has gained about 15%, and it has decisively broken above the 200-day moving average that had suppressed the price for roughly 300 days. During the session, it briefly touched $87,363, reaching the highest level since January this year.
In the past 24 hours, over $1 billion worth of short positions have been liquidated.
Over the past week, more than 1.0 million Bitcoins have been transferred on-chain, worth over $92 billion—an all-time high in nearly four years.
But one thing must be made clear:
A large part of the core impetus behind this rally comes from forced short covering—once the price broke through the resistance range, shorts were collectively forced to capitulate, and passive buying amplified the upswing.
Can it hold above 90,000 next, even pushing toward 100,000? It depends on whether spot buyers can take the baton and keep buying.
Santiment’s data shows that optimistic discussions around Bitcoin have risen to the strongest level since 2024, and the Fear & Greed Index is moving steadily toward “extreme greed.”
What comes after “extreme greed”? You figure it out.
Also, ZEC broke above $1,600 last night as well, setting yet another recent high. In the past four hours, liquidations totaled $13.4 million, ranking first across the whole network. Of that, $12.9 million came from short positions being liquidated. The privacy track and mainstream assets are strengthening in sync—this rally is not a story about just one coin; it’s the entire risk-asset curve moving together in resonance.
When global risk appetite rebounds, BTC is often the asset with the highest elasticity.
But the sentiment boost brought by easing geopolitical tensions is pulse-like—will the U.S. and Iran truly reach an agreement after the mid-term elections? Can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? These are the underlying variables that determine how far this market rally can go.
With BTC at 86,000, what’s behind it is a new high in the Nasdaq, surging storage-chip momentum, and a 3-hour U.S.-Iran meeting.
The macro tailwind is blowing toward risk assets.