BTC breaks through May’s high and is approaching $860,000. Combined with the People’s Bank of China’s remarks yesterday, this signal is worth rethinking.
Yesterday, the People’s Bank of China again warned about the risks of virtual currencies. It clearly stated that conducting virtual-currency-related business within China constitutes illegal financial activity. It also emphasized that unless approved in accordance with the law, stablecoins linked to the RMB must not be issued offshore.
But interestingly, after the regulatory news came out, BTC not only failed to keep falling—it instead broke through May’s high and at one point climbed to nearly $870,000. Risk appetite in the crypto market has clearly rebounded. This recent rally has also been accompanied by short liquidations and fresh capital re-entering. After BTC broke through $82,000, it accelerated further.
This actually points to one problem: the central bank’s regulation of BTC and the global BTC price are increasingly showing “two different logics.”
For the mainland market, there has been no relaxation of the central bank’s regulatory boundaries. In particular, regulations regarding trading, funding channels, stablecoins, U.S. merchants (U商), and RWA-related businesses remain highly focused. The February 2026 notice from eight government departments also clearly states that financial institutions may not provide accounts, fund transfer, or clearing and settlement services for virtual-coin-related businesses. Strict regulation will also apply to RWA tokenization activities without consent.
But for global BTC, the price is still largely determined by global liquidity, ETF inflows, institutional positioning, and the U.S. dollar and U.S. stock market risk appetite. Recently, BTC’s rise coincided with a rally in U.S. tech stocks, a rebound in risk appetite, and short covering at the same time. This suggests that capital has not exited the global crypto market because of China’s regulatory statements.
So what is truly worth watching in this rally is this: tighter China’s regulation has not changed the global BTC market’s pricing logic, but it will further change how mainland capital participates in the crypto market and the risk structure involved.
Next, focus on two key levels:
$86,000—$87,000: an important pressure zone from earlier. After a breakout, whether it can hold steady is more important than just pushing to a higher price.
$82,000—$84,000: if, after breaking out, the pullback can hold and defend this area, it suggests the breakout is more valid. If the price quickly falls back into the breakout range, watch out for a false breakout.
There’s another even more important observation point: if BTC can stabilize at higher levels, and if ETH and major altcoins begin to catch up and rise, then the market may be moving from a BTC-only repair → ETH catch-up → and then a gradual spread to altcoin rotation.
So yesterday’s central bank news is more like a reaffirmation of the mainland’s regulatory boundary, while today’s BTC rise is telling the market that the global crypto asset price discovery mechanism has not changed due to a single region’s regulatory stance.
What’s really worth watching next is whether BTC can turn the May high from a “resistance level” into a “support level.” If this step is accomplished, the rally’s structure will be more important than simply rushing up toward $87,000.
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BTC Breaks Through May’s High, Approaching $860,000
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