Key takeaway:
The market is pricing two things at the same time: easing U.S.-Iran negotiation-related risks helps limit oil-price risk premiums, while AI hardware and the storage chain continue to support the Nasdaq, but high interest rates and energy-driven inflation still constrain the upside elasticity of risk assets.
【Today’s Main Line】
Main Line 1: The U.S.-Iran talks and the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which determine short-term direction for oil prices, gold, and global risk appetite.
Main Line 2: Expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes are heating up; yields on two-year U.S. Treasuries are rising, and growth-stock valuations continue to face tests from high interest rates.
Main Line 3: AI hardware and the storage supply chain continue to outperform the broader market, with investors favoring compute-related segments that have near-term revenue and performance delivery.
The fourth major theme: an assessment of US diesel export restrictions combined with constraints on refining capacity; fuel inflation could become a new variable for the energy market.
The fifth major theme: domestic policy signals are densely emerging around advanced manufacturing, BeiDou, integrated circuits, domestically made AI chips, and robotics—relevant industry chains are entering a monitoring window.
【US stocks】
US major index performance was mixed: the Dow fell 0.36%, the S&P 500 was almost flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45% and continued to set a new closing high. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.32%, and Alibaba rose 0.45%.
AI hardware and the storage chain performed strongly: Micron rose 5%, SK hynix rose more than 3%, and SanDisk rose 6.8%. Banks were under pressure—at one point the S&P 500 bank index fell to a more-than-three-month low, and large bank stocks generally declined.
【Macro】
The US Dollar Index rose 0.17%, closing at 100.603. US 2-year Treasury yields rose to a two-year high of 4.7879% at one point; the 2-year Treasury auction stop-through yield was 4.787%.
Fed Governor Boulkingin said that the rate hikes from last week helped restore price stability; whether more hikes are needed is still something to watch. He believes inflation risks outweigh employment risks, and the economy is moving toward stability. CME pricing shows a 54.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October by the Fed.
The Asian Development Bank expects 2026 growth of 5.0% for Asia-Pacific developing economies, slightly higher than its July forecast; 2027 is maintained at 5.1%. Australia’s initial September composite PMI fell to 50.8, manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, and growth momentum weakened.
【AI storage chain】
AI market sentiment continues shifting from forward-looking narratives toward near-term performance validation. In computing hardware segments such as storage, CPUs, foundry services, and optical interconnects, relative performance remains favorable. TrendForce said North American customer demand has stayed strong; corporate-grade SSDs are expected to sustain their uptrend into Q4 2026.
The CFTC extended its review of GPU leasing price futures on the CME, temporarily slowing the financialization process of AI compute power. Regulators are focusing on fragmentation and insufficient transparency in the underlying market.
【Tech industry】
Alibaba’s T-Head released Zhenwu V900, boosting compute performance to 3 times that of Zhenwu M890. Alibaba said that by 2032, the global data center scale operated by Aliyun will exceed 20GW.
OpenAI released GPT-6 SOL and GPT-6 LUNA. API prices were cut by 50% from the GPT-5.6 promotional pricing. OpenAI will also allow external organizations to assess AI model safety risks at an earlier stage.
Anthropic released Claude Opus 5.5, priced at $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens, and said operating costs are 40% lower than Opus 5. Microsoft plans to offer 30% to 50% discounts on Copilot subscriptions for enterprises and intends to launch a revamped AI “super app.”
Apple’s new Mac mini and Mac Studio are officially on sale, and it is also developing a new screenless device for tracking health and fitness. Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6 and the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6.
【Crude oil】
International oil prices fell: WTI October futures dropped 1.24% to $94.59 per barrel; Brent November futures fell 1.09% to $99.25 per barrel. US-Iran talks were described as “productive,” and further contact may occur again soon, lowering the energy risk premium.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a core variable for oil prices. Iran proposed reopening the strait under conditions, including lifting maritime blockades, releasing frozen assets, and ending hostilities along relevant fronts. Saudi Arabia restarted east-west oil pipelines, and Asian refiners received informal assurances that they can lift oil from the Yanbu port.
US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.786 million barrels, higher than the expected draw of 0.563 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.16 million barrels, and refined oil inventories fell by 2.164 million barrels. Trump pushed for an assessment of the diesel export ban; the impact of energy policy on fuel prices and the global supply chain needs further observation.
【Precious metals】
Spot gold briefly fell by nearly $20 after expectations for US-Iran talks heated up, trading around $4,319 per ounce. However, safe-haven demand and asset allocation needs still provide support. The world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased holdings by 0.571 tons to 1,055.981 tons.
Silver performed even better: spot silver briefly rose to $67.35 per ounce during the day, with the gain expanding to 2.00%. SGE gold T+D rose 0.5% in the evening session, while silver T+D rose 1.62%. Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.36%, and Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.14%.
【Domestic leads】
Li Qiang, during an inspection tour in Shanghai, emphasized accelerating the cultivation and growth of emerging industries and future industries, and steadily strengthening advanced manufacturing. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed promoting the BeiDou industry scale to exceed 1 trillion yuan within five years.
Wuhan proposed supporting leading companies such as Yangtze Memory to increase capital and expand production, promoting coordinated development in the integrated circuit industry chain. Total financing balance across the two markets increased by 3.422 billion yuan to 261.7869 billion yuan, and funding activity continued to recover.
A-shares watchlist direction: focus on the AI storage chain, advanced manufacturing, the BeiDou industry, robotics, domestically produced AI chips, semiconductor equipment and materials, and energy transport and oil & gas security-related supply chains.
【Key schedule】
15:15 France September manufacturing PMI initial reading
15:30 Germany September manufacturing PMI initial reading
16:00 Eurozone September manufacturing PMI initial reading
16:00 OECD releases Global Economic Outlook report
16:30 United Kingdom September manufacturing PMI initial reading, services PMI initial reading
21:00 US Secretary of State Rubio meets with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in New York
21:45 US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial reading, services PMI initial reading
22:05 Fed Governor Barr comments on housing
22:30 US weekly EIA crude oil inventories as of September 18, EIA Cushing crude oil inventories, EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories
【Risk warning】
Watch for repeated US-Iran negotiations, the less-than-expected recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, EIA inventories coming in above expectations, changes in US diesel export policies, US Treasury yields continuing to rise, and volatility in AI high-valuation assets during the earnings delivery phase.
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For research and learning only; it does not constitute investment advice.