Why didn’t BTC fall after the rate hike, but instead rose?

  Before the rate hike (9/15–9/16): bearish news was released early, breaking down and slipping lower                                                                   
                                                                                                                
  - Since 8/21, BTC has been trading in a range of 77,100–81,300 for 24 days; on 9/15 (Tuesday) it closed at 75,702, down 3.2%, breaking below the bottom of the range.             
  - On 9/16, it fell to around 76,000, and also broke below the "real market average" of 76,700. The backdrop is that expectations for the rate hike are heating up (the market is pricing in a 25bp hike with a 92% probability), CLARITY 
    The bill was rejected by the Senate; US spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $450 million (cumulative outflow of $334 million from 9/8–9/14).                         
                                                                                                                
  - In other words: most of the downside happened before the rate hike was implemented, with the bad news priced in early.                                                            
                                                                                                                
  Rate hike lands (2:00 a.m. on 9/17): 25 bp, the first time in three years                                                                  
 
  - The Fed hiked rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. The dot plot implied another possible hike within 2026 (hawkish).                                  
  - After the resolution, BTC briefly dipped below 76,000, but quickly rebounded and stabilized around 76,500; US stocks also rallied in sync (S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq         
    +1.5%).                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                
  - Jiang Zhuoer’s pre-decision before the vote: "fall first then rise, or test 84,000" basically played out.                                                     
                                                                                                                
  After the rate hike (9/18–9/23): stabilize → break through → accelerate                                                                       
                                                                                                                
  - 9/18: Glassnode said BTC returned above the true market average, with bullish signals reappearing; resistance overhead is 80,000 (enterprise treasury cost) and 85,000 (ETF  
  (cost of holdings).                                                                                                
                                                                                                                
  - 9/20: CoinDesk's headline summed it up directly—"Fed rate hike and bill setback; Bitcoin shrugs off bad news and holds firm despite the headwind," maintaining the 75,000 level.             
  - 9/21: broke above 82,000 (resistance since August), triggering a $750 million short liquidation; the price briefly touched 86,000; open interest contracts rose +20 on the day 
    hundred million USD.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                
  - 9/22–9/23: held above 84,569 as strong support. On Monday (9/21), it recorded a 33-week high of 87,350. Since the low on 7/1 at 57,749, it has gained more than 50%; through  
    Over the past 72 hours, net ETF inflows exceeded $1.6 billion; CoinShares' weekly report says BTC rose 5.2% that week, outperforming the blockchain equities index.                   
                                                                                                                
  One-sentence summary                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                
  - Before the rate hike: 75,700–76,000 (range breakdown, down 3%+); at the moment the hike was implemented: a brief dip below 76,000; within 5 days after the hike: 76,500 →      
    87,350，about +15%. Typical "good news after bad, fall first then rise", and this round of gains is driven by both net ETF inflows and a squeeze of short sellers. 