What do you think about the event where Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $1 billion yesterday? First, use your own way of thinking.
Alright, 1, 2, 3—stop, stop thinking.
I bet you’re thinking like this: Institutions collectively made a massive inflow—there must be some unknown secret behind it. Quickly follow the institutions’ lead, come on, let’s rush in!
Alright, let me give you an alternative logic:
1. First of all, the group behind this ETF that buys it includes some institutions, family offices, some large whales, and some retail investors. Where there is buying, there is also selling, right? Everyone only sees the $1 billion being used to buy in—so who is selling the $1 billion worth of Bitcoin?
First, let’s rule out retail investors, okay? Retail investors aren’t on the train. So where does the Bitcoin used to sell that $1 billion come from? Then who is it? It’s not institutions or family offices, not retail investors—so what’s left is: whales and trading venues.
So we need to look at the Bitcoin market and figure out who’s really in control.
2. Such a massive buy—in terms of the relativistic idea—doesn’t it imply that the subsequent inflow funds will be less than that $1 billion? The higher the price gets, the more it will relatively hinder them from continuing to flow in. In other words: if it keeps rallying, their desire to sell will be greater than their desire to buy. That $1 billion inflow, relative to what comes later, isn’t just a “support board”—it’s a sell order.
Can you understand what I’m saying?
We should enter the market before the inflow happens, and even buy while liquidity is flowing out—not wait until after a massive inflow to buy. Do it early, trade early, not late.
Everyone should be cautious: Bitcoin may surge again. There are two possible scenarios:
1) It drops directly to where long positions get wiped at 8.2–7.8, and then continues to rise, surging toward 100,000.
2) It first rises to 8.9, then falls to below 8.2 where long positions get wiped, and then surges toward 100,000.
Alright, 1, 2, 3—stop, stop thinking.
I bet you’re thinking like this: Institutions collectively made a massive inflow—there must be some unknown secret behind it. Quickly follow the institutions’ lead, come on, let’s rush in!
Alright, let me give you an alternative logic:
1. First of all, the group behind this ETF that buys it includes some institutions, family offices, some large whales, and some retail investors. Where there is buying, there is also selling, right? Everyone only sees the $1 billion being used to buy in—so who is selling the $1 billion worth of Bitcoin?
First, let’s rule out retail investors, okay? Retail investors aren’t on the train. So where does the Bitcoin used to sell that $1 billion come from? Then who is it? It’s not institutions or family offices, not retail investors—so what’s left is: whales and trading venues.
So we need to look at the Bitcoin market and figure out who’s really in control.
2. Such a massive buy—in terms of the relativistic idea—doesn’t it imply that the subsequent inflow funds will be less than that $1 billion? The higher the price gets, the more it will relatively hinder them from continuing to flow in. In other words: if it keeps rallying, their desire to sell will be greater than their desire to buy. That $1 billion inflow, relative to what comes later, isn’t just a “support board”—it’s a sell order.
Can you understand what I’m saying?
We should enter the market before the inflow happens, and even buy while liquidity is flowing out—not wait until after a massive inflow to buy. Do it early, trade early, not late.
Everyone should be cautious: Bitcoin may surge again. There are two possible scenarios:
1) It drops directly to where long positions get wiped at 8.2–7.8, and then continues to rise, surging toward 100,000.
2) It first rises to 8.9, then falls to below 8.2 where long positions get wiped, and then surges toward 100,000.