$ETH Contract open interest hits a 9-month high, yet funding rates haven’t gotten more expensive—this combo is uncommon
First, let’s put the numbers on the table. Binance ETH futures OI is $6.58B, a 9-month high; from September to now, OI is up 37%. In the same period, the price has only moved from just above 2700 to around 2750—upward momentum hasn’t been as fast as the growth in open interest. In the old script, when OI spikes and price goes sideways, the next move is either a breakout or a wick. People are betting on both directions.
But look at the funding rate: $BTC —the funding rate is still negative. Even the ETH perpetual funding rate is below the neutral line. Glassnode says that perpetual speculative positions remain sluggish. Translated: this round of adding isn’t from leveraged longs chasing higher funding rates; with the funding rate still negative, players are still increasing exposure—coming from more resilient capital. This is different from the structure before the drop in August: back then it was funding rates maxed out and leverage stacked to the top. This time, positions are piling up, the price isn’t catching up, and funding is cheap.
The liquidation map is the key. When $ETH breaks below 2634, mainstream CEX long liquidations ramp up to $1.622B. If price pushes above 2907, short liquidations are only $600M. The two figures don’t match: the “fuel” pushing upward ($600M short liquidations) is far smaller than the fuel being used to smash downward ($1.6B+ long liquidations). The squeeze from the past couple of days that liquidated shorts for $990M basically sweeps the short-liquidity pool above—so on the way up there’s not much to eat. With this kind of one-sided liquidation structure, chasing longs directly above 2800 is a poor deal: less liquidation overhead means it’s harder to pull the price up; heavier liquidation below means wicks could be both deeper and sharper.
$SOL is similar: it follows the broader market, and the funding rate hasn’t bubbled up either, so you can consider them together. This OI
First, let’s put the numbers on the table. Binance ETH futures OI is $6.58B, a 9-month high; from September to now, OI is up 37%. In the same period, the price has only moved from just above 2700 to around 2750—upward momentum hasn’t been as fast as the growth in open interest. In the old script, when OI spikes and price goes sideways, the next move is either a breakout or a wick. People are betting on both directions.
But look at the funding rate: $BTC —the funding rate is still negative. Even the ETH perpetual funding rate is below the neutral line. Glassnode says that perpetual speculative positions remain sluggish. Translated: this round of adding isn’t from leveraged longs chasing higher funding rates; with the funding rate still negative, players are still increasing exposure—coming from more resilient capital. This is different from the structure before the drop in August: back then it was funding rates maxed out and leverage stacked to the top. This time, positions are piling up, the price isn’t catching up, and funding is cheap.
The liquidation map is the key. When $ETH breaks below 2634, mainstream CEX long liquidations ramp up to $1.622B. If price pushes above 2907, short liquidations are only $600M. The two figures don’t match: the “fuel” pushing upward ($600M short liquidations) is far smaller than the fuel being used to smash downward ($1.6B+ long liquidations). The squeeze from the past couple of days that liquidated shorts for $990M basically sweeps the short-liquidity pool above—so on the way up there’s not much to eat. With this kind of one-sided liquidation structure, chasing longs directly above 2800 is a poor deal: less liquidation overhead means it’s harder to pull the price up; heavier liquidation below means wicks could be both deeper and sharper.
$SOL is similar: it follows the broader market, and the funding rate hasn’t bubbled up either, so you can consider them together. This OI
