Today I saw “Ten Boss” @十老板 ruin a short position on a flat, and I sincerely feel emotional. Last week’s article proved a point with one line of foresight.
It was probably giving back about $4 million U in profit. About half a month ago, I wrote an article discussing why this short position wasn’t closed with a stop-loss earlier.
Unfortunately, the article had a bug and didn’t save automatically back then, so the full version never got published. Later I got too busy and didn’t manage to send it out again. Today, I’m making up for it.
First, when I saw this delivery/settlement notice, I noticed Ten Boss’s position: a short entry around 118,000. Many people probably would have the first reaction that this level is great. But the question I kept thinking about is: Bitcoin fell from 120,000 to 60,000, while Ten Boss’s short position entry price has been around 118,000 the whole time. That indicates Ten Boss didn’t add to the position while in floating profit—rather, he chose to enter with a large position from the beginning and kept holding it. Now, at this price level of 118,000, through what method was it obtained? I have my doubts.
(1) One possibility is directly “guessing the top”—predicting that 118,000 is roughly the major top and shorting right there. That’s definitely the most amazing and impressive scenario. But if you use a top-guessing strategy, it would mean that such precise top-calling must involve giving up some earlier guesses—like if someone shorted at 110,000, realized it was wrong, stopped out at 112,000, then continued shorting at 118,000. Only then could the short end up so close to the top.
Many newbies would ask: don’t we just have someone who can guess the top in one shot and short directly? Some brothers—yes, scammers can do it, or gamblers sometimes get lucky. But a trader who has been in the market for the long run must rely on a non-guessing trading system to win. Ten Boss has traded for 7 years, and this position size is huge.
That’s to say, Ten Boss uses technical trading, not the idea that many beginners think—that Ten Boss is a god who guesses correctly every time 😅
If it were just guessing, with such a big position and no stop-loss, Ten Boss would have been blown up many times.
(2) Another possibility, which I think is less feasible, is that Ten Boss brought down the average entry price by “adding while in floating loss,” gradually filling the position’s average price up to 118,000. For example, shorting at 112,000 and adding all the way, ultimately bringing the average to 118,000. I think it’s unlikely that the 118,000 average price was achieved through this kind of trading method. No matter how much you add—even if there’s no stop-loss—it would be very difficult to end up with an average of exactly 118,000.
To be continued~
It was probably giving back about $4 million U in profit. About half a month ago, I wrote an article discussing why this short position wasn’t closed with a stop-loss earlier.
Unfortunately, the article had a bug and didn’t save automatically back then, so the full version never got published. Later I got too busy and didn’t manage to send it out again. Today, I’m making up for it.
First, when I saw this delivery/settlement notice, I noticed Ten Boss’s position: a short entry around 118,000. Many people probably would have the first reaction that this level is great. But the question I kept thinking about is: Bitcoin fell from 120,000 to 60,000, while Ten Boss’s short position entry price has been around 118,000 the whole time. That indicates Ten Boss didn’t add to the position while in floating profit—rather, he chose to enter with a large position from the beginning and kept holding it. Now, at this price level of 118,000, through what method was it obtained? I have my doubts.
(1) One possibility is directly “guessing the top”—predicting that 118,000 is roughly the major top and shorting right there. That’s definitely the most amazing and impressive scenario. But if you use a top-guessing strategy, it would mean that such precise top-calling must involve giving up some earlier guesses—like if someone shorted at 110,000, realized it was wrong, stopped out at 112,000, then continued shorting at 118,000. Only then could the short end up so close to the top.
Many newbies would ask: don’t we just have someone who can guess the top in one shot and short directly? Some brothers—yes, scammers can do it, or gamblers sometimes get lucky. But a trader who has been in the market for the long run must rely on a non-guessing trading system to win. Ten Boss has traded for 7 years, and this position size is huge.
That’s to say, Ten Boss uses technical trading, not the idea that many beginners think—that Ten Boss is a god who guesses correctly every time 😅
If it were just guessing, with such a big position and no stop-loss, Ten Boss would have been blown up many times.
(2) Another possibility, which I think is less feasible, is that Ten Boss brought down the average entry price by “adding while in floating loss,” gradually filling the position’s average price up to 118,000. For example, shorting at 112,000 and adding all the way, ultimately bringing the average to 118,000. I think it’s unlikely that the 118,000 average price was achieved through this kind of trading method. No matter how much you add—even if there’s no stop-loss—it would be very difficult to end up with an average of exactly 118,000.
To be continued~
