No.17 | Cycle: RECOVERY (confidence: medium) | Alpha: +0.8950
BTC touched $86K (+10%) and moved above the True Market Mean and the STH cost basis line, breaking through the $82-86K short liquidation wall. The LTH profit/loss ratio has turned positive and the Altcoin season is starting, though weekly net outflows from ETFs ($311.37M) remain negative against the trend.
Key signals:
1. [onchain] Cost structure break: Price at $86K is above the True Market Mean and the STH cost basis line; the cost model confirms a bullish structure
2. [derivatives] Short liquidation wall breakout: The $82-86K short positions accumulated over months were pierced, and the pullback was shallow—forcing short covering to become fuel for the rally
3. [profitability] LTH profit/loss ratio turns positive: LTH has been net underwater for most of this year, with losses being sold off; now it is gradually turning profitable, similar to past early exits from bear markets
4. [institutional] ETF net outflows: Spot and perpetual-buyer flow dominate, but weekly ETF net outflows of $311.37M still point in the opposite direction
5. [macro] Altcoin season breadth: The cycle signal is rotating from BTC to the Altcoin season; today’s up move ignites breadth across the whole market
BTC touched $86K (+10%) and moved above the True Market Mean and the STH cost basis line, breaking through the $82-86K short liquidation wall. The LTH profit/loss ratio has turned positive and the Altcoin season is starting, though weekly net outflows from ETFs ($311.37M) remain negative against the trend.
Key signals:
1. [onchain] Cost structure break: Price at $86K is above the True Market Mean and the STH cost basis line; the cost model confirms a bullish structure
2. [derivatives] Short liquidation wall breakout: The $82-86K short positions accumulated over months were pierced, and the pullback was shallow—forcing short covering to become fuel for the rally
3. [profitability] LTH profit/loss ratio turns positive: LTH has been net underwater for most of this year, with losses being sold off; now it is gradually turning profitable, similar to past early exits from bear markets
4. [institutional] ETF net outflows: Spot and perpetual-buyer flow dominate, but weekly ETF net outflows of $311.37M still point in the opposite direction
5. [macro] Altcoin season breadth: The cycle signal is rotating from BTC to the Altcoin season; today’s up move ignites breadth across the whole market