👓September 22 midday market outlook.👓
$BTC Viewpoint:
The big coin has once again made a new high. Why does it keep setting new highs? First, there are many people who short. Go check the ratio of long/short positions—it's already at 0.86. What does that mean? It means there are only 86 long positions, but 100 short positions. Second, the daily resistance level at 82,800 was broken, which activated the bulls’ desire for an upside move. Previously, the big coin was repeatedly suppressed by the 82,800 resistance, so it couldn’t really rise. Once it broke through, it’s like a caged bird regaining freedom—why wouldn’t it fly hard?
Look at the chart: Whether it’s an uptrend segment or a downtrend segment, to form an actual trend move upward or downward, it will follow a three-phase pattern of either rising or falling. Take the red arrows on the chart: after the big coin went through a consolidation range at the hourly timeframe, it started the first leg of the rally. After the first leg ended, it continued in the trading range. Once the trading range finished, it began the second leg of the rally. The big coin’s current position is in the consolidation trading range. Once the current consolidation range is finished, the third leg rally will begin.
But this third-leg rally must exceed the height of the first two rally legs. If the third-leg rally cannot surpass the height of the first two legs, then after it ends, there may be an upside move ending at the current timeframe, but a larger timeframe uptrend would not be over. Only if the third rally leg exceeds the height of the first two rally legs can the upward trend continue.
So based on the current price action, the big coin still has another wave of upside. This upswing hasn’t ended yet. Where exactly the third rally leg can reach is something we can only watch as it unfolds, because we can’t know it in advance. If I have to guess, in my personal view it’s likely around 90,000.
Today, as long as the big coin pulls back but does not break 85,210, it will trade in a range of 85,210–87,385. After the consolidation range is long enough, it will start the third-leg rally.
For classmates who don’t hold long positions: pay attention to around 85,210 and watch whether a bottom signal appears. If a bottom signal appears, go long with half position. Since going long now is chasing at a high level, the risk is high—so only use half position. In the extreme pullback case, as long as it doesn’t break 84,016, everything will be fine. If it breaks 84,016, the downside will likely expand.
Please check the comment section.
$BTC
#XRP上涨8%
$BTC Viewpoint:
The big coin has once again made a new high. Why does it keep setting new highs? First, there are many people who short. Go check the ratio of long/short positions—it's already at 0.86. What does that mean? It means there are only 86 long positions, but 100 short positions. Second, the daily resistance level at 82,800 was broken, which activated the bulls’ desire for an upside move. Previously, the big coin was repeatedly suppressed by the 82,800 resistance, so it couldn’t really rise. Once it broke through, it’s like a caged bird regaining freedom—why wouldn’t it fly hard?
Look at the chart: Whether it’s an uptrend segment or a downtrend segment, to form an actual trend move upward or downward, it will follow a three-phase pattern of either rising or falling. Take the red arrows on the chart: after the big coin went through a consolidation range at the hourly timeframe, it started the first leg of the rally. After the first leg ended, it continued in the trading range. Once the trading range finished, it began the second leg of the rally. The big coin’s current position is in the consolidation trading range. Once the current consolidation range is finished, the third leg rally will begin.
But this third-leg rally must exceed the height of the first two rally legs. If the third-leg rally cannot surpass the height of the first two legs, then after it ends, there may be an upside move ending at the current timeframe, but a larger timeframe uptrend would not be over. Only if the third rally leg exceeds the height of the first two rally legs can the upward trend continue.
So based on the current price action, the big coin still has another wave of upside. This upswing hasn’t ended yet. Where exactly the third rally leg can reach is something we can only watch as it unfolds, because we can’t know it in advance. If I have to guess, in my personal view it’s likely around 90,000.
Today, as long as the big coin pulls back but does not break 85,210, it will trade in a range of 85,210–87,385. After the consolidation range is long enough, it will start the third-leg rally.
For classmates who don’t hold long positions: pay attention to around 85,210 and watch whether a bottom signal appears. If a bottom signal appears, go long with half position. Since going long now is chasing at a high level, the risk is high—so only use half position. In the extreme pullback case, as long as it doesn’t break 84,016, everything will be fine. If it breaks 84,016, the downside will likely expand.
Please check the comment section.
$BTC
#XRP上涨8%
