ETH fell back from 2807 to 2746: sell-off volume expansion with a shrinking-volume pullback—I don’t treat the 2700 hot topic as a buy point
My stance is cautious for now and I’m not participating. Binance Square still shows #EthereumSurpasses$2700, which suggests attention above 2700 hasn’t disappeared. But that topic was created because yesterday’s price crossed the integer level—it’s not because a new protocol upgrade or ETF inflow happened again today. For this round, I first checked the Square Trending Topics, 6-hour hot searches, and Binance News/Research/OTC, then cross-checked announcements from the Ethereum Foundation, macro central banks, regulators, and institutional fund flows. I didn’t find any official event that can directly explain this hour’s ETH retracement, so I’ll only discuss what can be verified on the chart. I also won’t mistakenly say that the European Central Bank’s Pontes project selected the Ethereum mainnet, and I won’t say that Glamsterdam in the dev network has already been onboarded to mainnet.
As of the time of recording, OKX ETH perpetuals are at $2746, with the past 24h high/low of $2806.96 and $2645.01. The complete 15-minute candles at 08:45 (Beijing time) dropped from around 2771 to 2753.71, with about 64,800 ETH traded. By 09:00, price probed 2737.71 with about 91,000 ETH traded. After that, the 09:45 rebound lacked strength: only about 18,700 ETH traded. At 10:15 it closed at 2743.89 with volume around 25,200 ETH. In the down leg, volume expanded while the pullback shrank—this indicates sell pressure hasn’t been clearly absorbed yet, but it doesn’t necessarily mean 2740 will definitely break.
The public funding rate is roughly positive at ~0.0067%, open interest is about 621,000 ETH, and notional is about $1.706 billion. The rate isn’t extreme, so you can’t judge liquidation direction by it alone. Positioning can also simultaneously hold both long and short sides.
In the article earlier this morning, I said I’d watch two 15-minute candles at 2765—2770 to hold. Only if volume pulls back and the price closes back above 2783 with the next candle holding above 2778, I would use at most 1.5% of principal to try a long. After that, the chart first lost 2765, and it also dipped around 2735—so the conditions of the earlier plan didn’t fully occur. I didn’t write the idea as something already executed, and I definitely didn’t turn that into profit claims.
At this stage, the first line of defense is 2735—2742. For a short-term rebound, price needs to first cross back through 2755—2765, and then face the area around 2780 where it previously broke down. If price directly regains 2765 with renewed volume and holds it for two consecutive candles, then my short-term bearish view would start to be invalidated.
If I were trading for myself, my position size would be 0—I wouldn’t guess the bottom after a sell-off with rising volume. Only if 2735—2742 forms two consecutive 15-minute candles without making new lows, and then the next 15-minute candle reclaims 2756 while the following candle maintains above 2750—and if the upward trading volume clearly expands—I would use up to 1% of total trading capital to try a long in the spot market. Targets: first 2765—2775, then 2785—2800; the first target profit would be halved. After entering, if price drops back to 2742 I would cut the position in half. If the 15-minute candle closes below 2732, I’d close the remaining position. If 2732 breaks with volume and the pullback to 2742 fails, I cancel the long plan. I won’t add to the position just because the hot topic is still trending. Even if price reclaims 2800, I’d still need to see a volume-backed breakout above 2807 and then a successful pullback hold before reassessing—no premature declaration of a reversal.
#EthereumSurpasses$2700 $ETH
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is cautious for now and I’m not participating. Binance Square still shows #EthereumSurpasses$2700, which suggests attention above 2700 hasn’t disappeared. But that topic was created because yesterday’s price crossed the integer level—it’s not because a new protocol upgrade or ETF inflow happened again today. For this round, I first checked the Square Trending Topics, 6-hour hot searches, and Binance News/Research/OTC, then cross-checked announcements from the Ethereum Foundation, macro central banks, regulators, and institutional fund flows. I didn’t find any official event that can directly explain this hour’s ETH retracement, so I’ll only discuss what can be verified on the chart. I also won’t mistakenly say that the European Central Bank’s Pontes project selected the Ethereum mainnet, and I won’t say that Glamsterdam in the dev network has already been onboarded to mainnet.
As of the time of recording, OKX ETH perpetuals are at $2746, with the past 24h high/low of $2806.96 and $2645.01. The complete 15-minute candles at 08:45 (Beijing time) dropped from around 2771 to 2753.71, with about 64,800 ETH traded. By 09:00, price probed 2737.71 with about 91,000 ETH traded. After that, the 09:45 rebound lacked strength: only about 18,700 ETH traded. At 10:15 it closed at 2743.89 with volume around 25,200 ETH. In the down leg, volume expanded while the pullback shrank—this indicates sell pressure hasn’t been clearly absorbed yet, but it doesn’t necessarily mean 2740 will definitely break.
The public funding rate is roughly positive at ~0.0067%, open interest is about 621,000 ETH, and notional is about $1.706 billion. The rate isn’t extreme, so you can’t judge liquidation direction by it alone. Positioning can also simultaneously hold both long and short sides.
In the article earlier this morning, I said I’d watch two 15-minute candles at 2765—2770 to hold. Only if volume pulls back and the price closes back above 2783 with the next candle holding above 2778, I would use at most 1.5% of principal to try a long. After that, the chart first lost 2765, and it also dipped around 2735—so the conditions of the earlier plan didn’t fully occur. I didn’t write the idea as something already executed, and I definitely didn’t turn that into profit claims.
At this stage, the first line of defense is 2735—2742. For a short-term rebound, price needs to first cross back through 2755—2765, and then face the area around 2780 where it previously broke down. If price directly regains 2765 with renewed volume and holds it for two consecutive candles, then my short-term bearish view would start to be invalidated.
If I were trading for myself, my position size would be 0—I wouldn’t guess the bottom after a sell-off with rising volume. Only if 2735—2742 forms two consecutive 15-minute candles without making new lows, and then the next 15-minute candle reclaims 2756 while the following candle maintains above 2750—and if the upward trading volume clearly expands—I would use up to 1% of total trading capital to try a long in the spot market. Targets: first 2765—2775, then 2785—2800; the first target profit would be halved. After entering, if price drops back to 2742 I would cut the position in half. If the 15-minute candle closes below 2732, I’d close the remaining position. If 2732 breaks with volume and the pullback to 2742 fails, I cancel the long plan. I won’t add to the position just because the hot topic is still trending. Even if price reclaims 2800, I’d still need to see a volume-backed breakout above 2807 and then a successful pullback hold before reassessing—no premature declaration of a reversal.
#EthereumSurpasses$2700 $ETH
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
