Long-term holders are still selling BTC, but the net reduction in supply over the past 30 days has shrunk to about one-fifth of what it was at the end of August.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. updated on September 21: As of September 20, the 30-day supply change for long-term holders was a reduction of 21,700 BTC; on August 30 it was a reduction of 105,900 BTC, a decline of about 80%.
This is not a return to net positive holdings. The analyst noted that this cohort has been net reducing for five straight weeks; even in the past week they still cut by 47,800 BTC, and the average cost basis of the coins moved recently is slightly underwater.
More importantly, a decrease in on-chain supply doesn’t necessarily mean there are sell orders: it could come from selling, transfers between wallets, or coins moving into exchanges; the metric itself can’t distinguish between these.
So don’t write “slowing down” as “selling pressure has disappeared.” The real confirmation is whether the 30-day supply change can turn positive and whether the LTH-SOPR can return above 1. Which will you watch first?
$BTC
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. updated on September 21: As of September 20, the 30-day supply change for long-term holders was a reduction of 21,700 BTC; on August 30 it was a reduction of 105,900 BTC, a decline of about 80%.
This is not a return to net positive holdings. The analyst noted that this cohort has been net reducing for five straight weeks; even in the past week they still cut by 47,800 BTC, and the average cost basis of the coins moved recently is slightly underwater.
More importantly, a decrease in on-chain supply doesn’t necessarily mean there are sell orders: it could come from selling, transfers between wallets, or coins moving into exchanges; the metric itself can’t distinguish between these.
So don’t write “slowing down” as “selling pressure has disappeared.” The real confirmation is whether the 30-day supply change can turn positive and whether the LTH-SOPR can return above 1. Which will you watch first?
$BTC
