[First look at probability, then look at returns]
When many people see an options leaderboard, their first reaction is:
+2233%, why not just buy directly?
But what options truly require you to look at is never just the return rate.
For example, in the image:
Put 2650: return +2233%, hit probability 8%
Put 2800: return +323.9%, hit probability 38.5%
The logic is simple:
High return ≠ high win rate.
The farther the strike price is, the cheaper the premium may be, and the potential return rate may be higher—but the difficulty of the price actually reaching the target zone may also be greater.
So when trading options, first consider these 4 things:
① Direction: bullish or bearish
② Breakeven point: at least how far the price must move before you start making money
③ Hit probability: how hard it will be to make this scenario happen
④ Maximum loss: can you accept the worst-case outcome?
Remember one thing:
Don’t let the return rate pick your position—let the risk parameters determine your position size.
Next episode: Why “cheap options” are often not as cheap as you think?
#期权 #交易 #加密货币 #ETH $ETH
When many people see an options leaderboard, their first reaction is:
+2233%, why not just buy directly?
But what options truly require you to look at is never just the return rate.
For example, in the image:
Put 2650: return +2233%, hit probability 8%
Put 2800: return +323.9%, hit probability 38.5%
The logic is simple:
High return ≠ high win rate.
The farther the strike price is, the cheaper the premium may be, and the potential return rate may be higher—but the difficulty of the price actually reaching the target zone may also be greater.
So when trading options, first consider these 4 things:
① Direction: bullish or bearish
② Breakeven point: at least how far the price must move before you start making money
③ Hit probability: how hard it will be to make this scenario happen
④ Maximum loss: can you accept the worst-case outcome?
Remember one thing:
Don’t let the return rate pick your position—let the risk parameters determine your position size.
Next episode: Why “cheap options” are often not as cheap as you think?
#期权 #交易 #加密货币 #ETH $ETH
