#比特币突破8.5万美元
Many people see Bitcoin about to surge to 90,000 again. But what’s truly worth watching is the money that pushed the price up this time—and it’s not the same crowd as a week ago
👉 了解最新交易计划
On Monday, Bitcoin touched 86,000, setting an eight-month high. When it finally broke through the 82,000 level that had been holding back prices for nearly two months, roughly $750 million worth of short positions were liquidated
Most people only see the part that says: “Shorts got blown out, buy pressure is strong, and the next target is 90,000.” That understanding isn’t wrong—but it only covers the first half
The essence of liquidation is that the exchange buys to close the shorts—meaning those $750 million of buy orders were forced to be dumped in, not actively bought because someone believed in it
What’s even more interesting is what happened after the breakout. Bitcoin futures open interest increased by about $2 billion in new leverage—the rate of leverage rising is even faster than the price itself
That’s when things start to look different: the people pushed out were the bearish side, but the ones moving in on top are bullish traders adding leverage. In other words, the shorts’ positions have effectively been replaced by long leverage
But here’s the problem: price flipping bullish tends to happen faster than positions flipping bullish. That’s how Nansen puts it. Translated into plain language: the people calling for longs haven’t actually boarded yet—the leverage got on first
Now look at the ETF track. In the beginning of the week, the Clarity Act vote didn’t pass, and the Fed raised rates again. On Tuesday and Wednesday, spot ETF flows totaled outflows of $746 million. Then Thursday and Friday immediately did a 180—$160 million and $433 million inflows, respectively. Friday was still the strongest day of that week
Same week—money ran out first, then came back. That suggests this capital wasn’t built up slowly; it was being shoved back and forth by events
What’s really worth watching is another number: the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF buyers is around $82,225. With this upswing, they’re returning to the profit zone for the first time in a long time
And that’s where it gets thought-provoking: a batch of people just getting back to break-even are holding exactly the kind of most “easy-to shake loose” chips. Around break-even is usually one of the market’s favorite places to sell
So the current structure is two streams of money stacked on top of each other: one side is the fuel created by passive liquidation, and the other is the new leverage added. But the spot buying that can truly validate the trend still hasn’t proven it can keep up
If this trend continues… what you’ll need to watch isn’t the round number of 90,000, but whether derivatives leverage and spot trading volume can rise in sync. If leverage keeps going up but spot doesn’t move, then this is a false breakout pushed up by borrowing
The reversal is already here too. Bitcoin just reclaimed the 50-week moving average—a line that, in previous bear market rounds, had consistently acted like a ceiling pressing down on price. Standing above it is a legitimate signal
But the memory of that hasn’t faded: the $19 billion chain of liquidations in October last year was cleared in less than a year. The leverage that built up hasn’t been forgotten
Once spot can’t keep up, the same script can play out again—only with the direction reversed
Many people see Bitcoin about to surge to 90,000 again. But what’s truly worth watching is the money that pushed the price up this time—and it’s not the same crowd as a week ago
👉 了解最新交易计划
On Monday, Bitcoin touched 86,000, setting an eight-month high. When it finally broke through the 82,000 level that had been holding back prices for nearly two months, roughly $750 million worth of short positions were liquidated
Most people only see the part that says: “Shorts got blown out, buy pressure is strong, and the next target is 90,000.” That understanding isn’t wrong—but it only covers the first half
The essence of liquidation is that the exchange buys to close the shorts—meaning those $750 million of buy orders were forced to be dumped in, not actively bought because someone believed in it
What’s even more interesting is what happened after the breakout. Bitcoin futures open interest increased by about $2 billion in new leverage—the rate of leverage rising is even faster than the price itself
That’s when things start to look different: the people pushed out were the bearish side, but the ones moving in on top are bullish traders adding leverage. In other words, the shorts’ positions have effectively been replaced by long leverage
But here’s the problem: price flipping bullish tends to happen faster than positions flipping bullish. That’s how Nansen puts it. Translated into plain language: the people calling for longs haven’t actually boarded yet—the leverage got on first
Now look at the ETF track. In the beginning of the week, the Clarity Act vote didn’t pass, and the Fed raised rates again. On Tuesday and Wednesday, spot ETF flows totaled outflows of $746 million. Then Thursday and Friday immediately did a 180—$160 million and $433 million inflows, respectively. Friday was still the strongest day of that week
Same week—money ran out first, then came back. That suggests this capital wasn’t built up slowly; it was being shoved back and forth by events
What’s really worth watching is another number: the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF buyers is around $82,225. With this upswing, they’re returning to the profit zone for the first time in a long time
And that’s where it gets thought-provoking: a batch of people just getting back to break-even are holding exactly the kind of most “easy-to shake loose” chips. Around break-even is usually one of the market’s favorite places to sell
So the current structure is two streams of money stacked on top of each other: one side is the fuel created by passive liquidation, and the other is the new leverage added. But the spot buying that can truly validate the trend still hasn’t proven it can keep up
If this trend continues… what you’ll need to watch isn’t the round number of 90,000, but whether derivatives leverage and spot trading volume can rise in sync. If leverage keeps going up but spot doesn’t move, then this is a false breakout pushed up by borrowing
The reversal is already here too. Bitcoin just reclaimed the 50-week moving average—a line that, in previous bear market rounds, had consistently acted like a ceiling pressing down on price. Standing above it is a legitimate signal
But the memory of that hasn’t faded: the $19 billion chain of liquidations in October last year was cleared in less than a year. The leverage that built up hasn’t been forgotten
Once spot can’t keep up, the same script can play out again—only with the direction reversed