After a big surge, can we still look for a bullish move? How should we handle the next phase? Let me share my thoughts!
1. The rebound from last Friday to today has surged rapidly, mainly driven by news catalysts: the crypto bill amendment being resubmitted, the proposal in the U.S. to build a Bitcoin reserve continuing to be hyped by the market, the China-U.S. talks, easing in the Middle East, the interest-rate hike being carried out, and ETF inflows. Everything is piled up together—already reaching the 10,000-point level. The range is large enough, and buy pressure also comes with selling sentiment!
2. In terms of technical structure, the current momentum has reached the weekly Bollinger Band upper-rail pressure. According to past behavior, after touching the upper band, 70% of the time it pulls back and 30% of the time it turns into a bull run. This week is the first time it’s touched, and the strength has been released—so the probability of correction ahead is relatively high!
3. Last week, under a big bearish backdrop, the market didn’t drop; instead, it went through a washout-style rebound and rally—an abnormal pattern. Currently, the market’s long/short positioning is 3/7, and the bears have been liquidated by 70%. The situation is “light on the car,” with few chips. Meanwhile, the longs have “heavy cars,” and there are plenty of people chasing the rally. If you judge from the standpoint of the big operator, whichever side has the heavier “car” will be the one they clear. At this point, it’s easy to use the slope to do a big reversal!
4. In the Fed’s dot plot, among the 18 policymakers, 16 voted in favor of the next rate hike. Sentiment is still rather hawkish. If hawkish developments continue, and if there are ETF fund outflows along with it, plus some odd news coming out of the Middle East that adds pressure near the top, then most likely we’ll see a V-shaped reversal. Seeing 788-756 isn’t out of the question either!
As for the outlook, the short-term is indeed strong, but it’s already at the end of its momentum. Based on past patterns of ultra-strong market moves, when price hits pressure, there are usually three scenarios:
1. It pokes up again at 875-786, quickly falls back.
2. High-level repeated consolidation drains the patience of the shorts, luring the long camp onto the train—then a deep drop follows!
3. Breaks highs continuously and stays strong.
Based on the current backdrop and sector picture, the probability of repeated action is higher. Once the positive news fades, it will quickly give back gains. In terms of time, it likely consolidates and oscillates for a few days to wear down patience. So over the next few days, don’t chase rallies. In the rebound, short lightly in the 856-860 area; on the pullback, go long at 835-828. Run it two rounds like that. After the market digests high-level consolidation of the news, then on Thursday and Friday, we’ll combine the price action with the larger bearish picture again!
Stay calm and objective. Don’t let the rhythm from the previous round control your decisions!
$BTC $ETH $XAUT #比特币突破8.5万美元
1. The rebound from last Friday to today has surged rapidly, mainly driven by news catalysts: the crypto bill amendment being resubmitted, the proposal in the U.S. to build a Bitcoin reserve continuing to be hyped by the market, the China-U.S. talks, easing in the Middle East, the interest-rate hike being carried out, and ETF inflows. Everything is piled up together—already reaching the 10,000-point level. The range is large enough, and buy pressure also comes with selling sentiment!
2. In terms of technical structure, the current momentum has reached the weekly Bollinger Band upper-rail pressure. According to past behavior, after touching the upper band, 70% of the time it pulls back and 30% of the time it turns into a bull run. This week is the first time it’s touched, and the strength has been released—so the probability of correction ahead is relatively high!
3. Last week, under a big bearish backdrop, the market didn’t drop; instead, it went through a washout-style rebound and rally—an abnormal pattern. Currently, the market’s long/short positioning is 3/7, and the bears have been liquidated by 70%. The situation is “light on the car,” with few chips. Meanwhile, the longs have “heavy cars,” and there are plenty of people chasing the rally. If you judge from the standpoint of the big operator, whichever side has the heavier “car” will be the one they clear. At this point, it’s easy to use the slope to do a big reversal!
4. In the Fed’s dot plot, among the 18 policymakers, 16 voted in favor of the next rate hike. Sentiment is still rather hawkish. If hawkish developments continue, and if there are ETF fund outflows along with it, plus some odd news coming out of the Middle East that adds pressure near the top, then most likely we’ll see a V-shaped reversal. Seeing 788-756 isn’t out of the question either!
As for the outlook, the short-term is indeed strong, but it’s already at the end of its momentum. Based on past patterns of ultra-strong market moves, when price hits pressure, there are usually three scenarios:
1. It pokes up again at 875-786, quickly falls back.
2. High-level repeated consolidation drains the patience of the shorts, luring the long camp onto the train—then a deep drop follows!
3. Breaks highs continuously and stays strong.
Based on the current backdrop and sector picture, the probability of repeated action is higher. Once the positive news fades, it will quickly give back gains. In terms of time, it likely consolidates and oscillates for a few days to wear down patience. So over the next few days, don’t chase rallies. In the rebound, short lightly in the 856-860 area; on the pullback, go long at 835-828. Run it two rounds like that. After the market digests high-level consolidation of the news, then on Thursday and Friday, we’ll combine the price action with the larger bearish picture again!
Stay calm and objective. Don’t let the rhythm from the previous round control your decisions!
$BTC $ETH $XAUT #比特币突破8.5万美元
