XMR falls back to 568 after dipping from 586: the new version is still on the to-do list, not already released: I only make confirmations
Right now I’m continuing to observe XMR—neither chasing longs near 573, nor shorting just because of a single pullback candle. The volatility over the past few hours has been very direct: the price surged from around 570 to 586.63, then within the same move dropped back to around 568. This suggests thin liquidity and higher costs for chasing. Confirmation matters more than guessing the direction.
For this round, I first skimmed Binance Square’s trending topics, hot searches, and Monero’s official channels, but I didn’t find any reliable new event that directly matches this sharp “pump-and-dump” type of move. The latest official GitHub release is still v0.18.5.1 from July. Its core contents include strengthening security for remote nodes, RPC privacy filtering, limiting ZMQ reception, and multiple wallet and daemon fixes. The project repo does indeed have a “to-do” release entry for v0.18.5.3, but the page clearly states it’s the last v0.18 version in the plan—there are still tests and issues to complete. This can’t be packaged as “the new version is already live,” and it definitely can’t be used to explain every single candlestick move today.
On the board, XMR perpetual’s current price is about 573.6, with a 24-hour range of 541.15—635.44. The funding rate is around +0.0581%, down from about +0.0857% in the previous round—cooling off somewhat, but it’s still clearly elevated. Open interest is about 8.135 million contracts; at 0.01 XMR per contract, that’s roughly 81.4万 coins and a notional value of about $46.7 million. Since the funding rate has fallen but positioning hasn’t been meaningfully cleared, it means crowded longs have eased a bit, but it’s still not enough to rule out another sweep of stops.
After reviewing the prior round: the conditions I publicly set were support/holding between 570—573, and only if the 15-minute chart closes back above 578 would I consider testing a long. The first observation target was 586—590. Subsequently, price did indeed rebound from around 570, closed above 578, and even touched 586.63—but then it quickly fell again. Here all I can say is that the trigger path and the first target zone were validated by the market; it can’t be written as “I already executed and profited.” Instead, it shows how important position-reduction discipline is after reaching targets.
If this were my own trading, I would keep a zero position right now. My first setup is to wait for another stop-and-go between 568—571, then once the 15-minute chart closes back above 576.5, use 1.5%—2% of principal to try a spot long. First look for 580; when it gets there, cut one-third. The second target would be 586.5—590. If it breaks below 566, cut the position by half; if the 1-hour closes below 562, exit everything. If volume pushes above 580 and then it retests 576.5 without breaking, I might follow with at most 1% more principal. Conversely, if 568 breaks down on volume and the retrace fails around 573, then I’d consider a low-leverage test short with at most 0.5% principal, targeting 562 and 555. If the 15-minute chart stands back above 576.5, I would close immediately. Without these confirmations, I’ll keep waiting—I won’t mistake high volatility for high certainty.
$XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
Right now I’m continuing to observe XMR—neither chasing longs near 573, nor shorting just because of a single pullback candle. The volatility over the past few hours has been very direct: the price surged from around 570 to 586.63, then within the same move dropped back to around 568. This suggests thin liquidity and higher costs for chasing. Confirmation matters more than guessing the direction.
For this round, I first skimmed Binance Square’s trending topics, hot searches, and Monero’s official channels, but I didn’t find any reliable new event that directly matches this sharp “pump-and-dump” type of move. The latest official GitHub release is still v0.18.5.1 from July. Its core contents include strengthening security for remote nodes, RPC privacy filtering, limiting ZMQ reception, and multiple wallet and daemon fixes. The project repo does indeed have a “to-do” release entry for v0.18.5.3, but the page clearly states it’s the last v0.18 version in the plan—there are still tests and issues to complete. This can’t be packaged as “the new version is already live,” and it definitely can’t be used to explain every single candlestick move today.
On the board, XMR perpetual’s current price is about 573.6, with a 24-hour range of 541.15—635.44. The funding rate is around +0.0581%, down from about +0.0857% in the previous round—cooling off somewhat, but it’s still clearly elevated. Open interest is about 8.135 million contracts; at 0.01 XMR per contract, that’s roughly 81.4万 coins and a notional value of about $46.7 million. Since the funding rate has fallen but positioning hasn’t been meaningfully cleared, it means crowded longs have eased a bit, but it’s still not enough to rule out another sweep of stops.
After reviewing the prior round: the conditions I publicly set were support/holding between 570—573, and only if the 15-minute chart closes back above 578 would I consider testing a long. The first observation target was 586—590. Subsequently, price did indeed rebound from around 570, closed above 578, and even touched 586.63—but then it quickly fell again. Here all I can say is that the trigger path and the first target zone were validated by the market; it can’t be written as “I already executed and profited.” Instead, it shows how important position-reduction discipline is after reaching targets.
If this were my own trading, I would keep a zero position right now. My first setup is to wait for another stop-and-go between 568—571, then once the 15-minute chart closes back above 576.5, use 1.5%—2% of principal to try a spot long. First look for 580; when it gets there, cut one-third. The second target would be 586.5—590. If it breaks below 566, cut the position by half; if the 1-hour closes below 562, exit everything. If volume pushes above 580 and then it retests 576.5 without breaking, I might follow with at most 1% more principal. Conversely, if 568 breaks down on volume and the retrace fails around 573, then I’d consider a low-leverage test short with at most 0.5% principal, targeting 562 and 555. If the 15-minute chart stands back above 576.5, I would close immediately. Without these confirmations, I’ll keep waiting—I won’t mistake high volatility for high certainty.
$XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
