On September 4, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that on September 21 (Monday), SanDisk will be added to the S&P 100 before the U.S. stock market opens. Other companies entering in the same batch include Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and Arista—every one of them is an IT-related name. The companies removed are Nike (after nearly 18 years), Clorox, Simon Property Group, and Honeywell Aerospace.
SanDisk’s share price has already moved ahead of expectations: on September 18, it closed up about 11% to $1,791.82, with a market cap of roughly $262.4 billion. Its gain over the course of 2026 exceeds 600%, making it the best-performing constituent stock in the S&P 500. Looking ahead, its track record is just as strong: it entered the S&P 500 in November 2025, the Nasdaq 100 in April 2026, and after the August 31 close, it was added to the MSCI Global Standard Index.
The point of disagreement between bulls and bears is actually very clear. Bulls are buying based on the real underlying demand for AI data centers for NAND flash memory: fiscal year 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year; data-center business revenue up 437% year over year; and its share rising from about 12% to 38%. The company also authorized a $14 billion share repurchase program. Bears, meanwhile, worry about the quality of the growth—around two-thirds of the sequential increase comes from higher pricing rather than shipment volume.
As for the “index inclusion” catalyst, I think it has been overstated. The passive bid is not that large. The assets of funds tracking the S&P 100 are limited, and based on an estimated weight of around 0.5%, they would require only about $100 million—negligible compared with the tens of billions of dollars traded every day. So the 11% jump on September 18 is an overlap of sentiment and index expectations, not fresh passive capital.
Ultimately, the answer to the dispute will be written in gross margin: if higher pricing can persist into 2027, this stock deserves its current valuation; if it cannot, a 600% gain is the hallmark of the top of a cyclical stock.
$SNDKB
# SanDisk to be added to the S&P 100 on September 21
Which do you care more about—the growth in shipment volumes, or the gross margin from higher pricing?
SanDisk’s share price has already moved ahead of expectations: on September 18, it closed up about 11% to $1,791.82, with a market cap of roughly $262.4 billion. Its gain over the course of 2026 exceeds 600%, making it the best-performing constituent stock in the S&P 500. Looking ahead, its track record is just as strong: it entered the S&P 500 in November 2025, the Nasdaq 100 in April 2026, and after the August 31 close, it was added to the MSCI Global Standard Index.
The point of disagreement between bulls and bears is actually very clear. Bulls are buying based on the real underlying demand for AI data centers for NAND flash memory: fiscal year 2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year; data-center business revenue up 437% year over year; and its share rising from about 12% to 38%. The company also authorized a $14 billion share repurchase program. Bears, meanwhile, worry about the quality of the growth—around two-thirds of the sequential increase comes from higher pricing rather than shipment volume.
As for the “index inclusion” catalyst, I think it has been overstated. The passive bid is not that large. The assets of funds tracking the S&P 100 are limited, and based on an estimated weight of around 0.5%, they would require only about $100 million—negligible compared with the tens of billions of dollars traded every day. So the 11% jump on September 18 is an overlap of sentiment and index expectations, not fresh passive capital.
Ultimately, the answer to the dispute will be written in gross margin: if higher pricing can persist into 2027, this stock deserves its current valuation; if it cannot, a 600% gain is the hallmark of the top of a cyclical stock.
$SNDKB
# SanDisk to be added to the S&P 100 on September 21
Which do you care more about—the growth in shipment volumes, or the gross margin from higher pricing?