Several things I’ve been working on recently—one is shorting A-share tokenization companies, and the other is shorting counterfeit coins.
Let me summarize my thoughts and strategy on shorting counterfeit coins (still under verification, so it may not be correct).
Here’s what I want to say:
One-sentence summary: In an uptrend, when the 1-minute chart shows continuous accelerating rise and then prints a long upper wick that far exceeds the body—specifically the second candle—then you can short.
I’m thinking of it in two stages: shorting in the earlier small stage (not really recommended), and shorting at the peak.
What is the small-stage short? It means shorting during a pullback after a sustained rally. This is relatively dangerous—going to “eat” the pullback in an uptrend is something I personally don’t recommend.
What is a peak short? As the name suggests, you short at the highest point of the coin price. The problem is: how do you identify the highest point?
Early stage: Before the rally, there will definitely be some attempt to lure shorts—getting a small number of people to develop the habit of shorting. Then, through various possible means (I’m not sure which form it will take here) to lure shorting, some people who end up holding through it may create opportunities for others to cut losses, and it may also give some people a chance to profit—then the uptrend begins.
What I mentioned above can be summarized in one point: there is trading volume.
My logic is that after experts “shock-pierce” and trigger a liquidation of shorts, there will be a brief liquidity trend with no counterparty demand. In that period, there can be situations where both longs and shorts get hit. What we earn is from the money of the people chasing longs.
That’s all for now. After thinking more, I’ll explain more over the next few days. Later, I’ll also find some screenshots for everyone to see. Everyone can also look for screenshots to refute me.
Tap follow—I'll continue sharing my views on shorting and arbitrage. Thank you!!!
$BTC
Let me summarize my thoughts and strategy on shorting counterfeit coins (still under verification, so it may not be correct).
Here’s what I want to say:
One-sentence summary: In an uptrend, when the 1-minute chart shows continuous accelerating rise and then prints a long upper wick that far exceeds the body—specifically the second candle—then you can short.
I’m thinking of it in two stages: shorting in the earlier small stage (not really recommended), and shorting at the peak.
What is the small-stage short? It means shorting during a pullback after a sustained rally. This is relatively dangerous—going to “eat” the pullback in an uptrend is something I personally don’t recommend.
What is a peak short? As the name suggests, you short at the highest point of the coin price. The problem is: how do you identify the highest point?
Early stage: Before the rally, there will definitely be some attempt to lure shorts—getting a small number of people to develop the habit of shorting. Then, through various possible means (I’m not sure which form it will take here) to lure shorting, some people who end up holding through it may create opportunities for others to cut losses, and it may also give some people a chance to profit—then the uptrend begins.
What I mentioned above can be summarized in one point: there is trading volume.
My logic is that after experts “shock-pierce” and trigger a liquidation of shorts, there will be a brief liquidity trend with no counterparty demand. In that period, there can be situations where both longs and shorts get hit. What we earn is from the money of the people chasing longs.
That’s all for now. After thinking more, I’ll explain more over the next few days. Later, I’ll also find some screenshots for everyone to see. Everyone can also look for screenshots to refute me.
Tap follow—I'll continue sharing my views on shorting and arbitrage. Thank you!!!
$BTC