$BTC — Update & Review
Still expecting 75k, so I'm not breakout longing here.
Last idea was wrong — price pushed to 83k anyway. Took a bigger loss on that short, but not discouraged. We also caught a scalp long win the same day, plus three 4RR+ shorts off that 81–83k POI earlier. Shorting that zone wasn't bad practice; the last execution was just messy. My bad for sharing it.
Brief re-eval now. Not much to change overall — just one major confluence set invalidated.
I still expect 75k. But I'm not shorting here yet, and I'm definitely not breakout longing like I did at 69k.
Market is still primed to drop, in my view.
Quarterly OHLC invalidation + high timeframe mmd + two major levels = big deal. That 82.8k level is now a key bias line. If we move back below it, that's strong confirmation the drop is coming.
Summary:
- Market primed to drop
- Only short scenario: fake-out back below 82.8k
- Only long scenario: positional long below 75k
- Not considering swing longs unless something local develops (like a range) — unlikely imo
In short: not blindly shorting, not blindly longing. Patiently expecting a drop.
Still expecting 75k, so I'm not breakout longing here.
Last idea was wrong — price pushed to 83k anyway. Took a bigger loss on that short, but not discouraged. We also caught a scalp long win the same day, plus three 4RR+ shorts off that 81–83k POI earlier. Shorting that zone wasn't bad practice; the last execution was just messy. My bad for sharing it.
Brief re-eval now. Not much to change overall — just one major confluence set invalidated.
I still expect 75k. But I'm not shorting here yet, and I'm definitely not breakout longing like I did at 69k.
Market is still primed to drop, in my view.
Quarterly OHLC invalidation + high timeframe mmd + two major levels = big deal. That 82.8k level is now a key bias line. If we move back below it, that's strong confirmation the drop is coming.
Summary:
- Market primed to drop
- Only short scenario: fake-out back below 82.8k
- Only long scenario: positional long below 75k
- Not considering swing longs unless something local develops (like a range) — unlikely imo
In short: not blindly shorting, not blindly longing. Patiently expecting a drop.
