A major asset manager with $32 billion under management—VanEck—has come out to make a call. In an interview with CNBC, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research, even gave a target price: Bitcoin could potentially reach $100,000 next year.

There are three reasons, and they sound pretty convincing too.

First, Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with four years ago. This data is pretty key—when volatility drops, institutions are more willing to increase their positions. In the past, a 10% daily drop in Bitcoin was commonplace; now that level of movement is still exciting for traditional capital, but at least it’s no longer untouchable.

Second, global public debt is surging, and fiscal sustainability is making people increasingly uneasy. Sigel’s point is that policymakers can’t really solve this structural problem in the short term. That wording is fairly diplomatic; translated, it means: governments everywhere are borrowing to pay off old debts, fiat currency purchasing power will only be diluted over the long run—and naturally, scarce assets will attract demand.

Secondly, if liquidity conditions improve further, Bitcoin’s upward trend will be more stable. In essence, this is a bet on the Fed’s change of direction—something you may not be able to see clearly in the short term.

But interestingly, VanEck itself admits that the options market is not exactly in a celebratory mood right now.

The premium for bearish put options is higher than that for bullish call options. What does that mean? It means institutions are buying spot while spending money to buy insurance. They’re not that they don’t have optimism—they just fear being knocked into a pit in the short term by macro events. This “bullish long-term, hedged short-term” posture is actually more realistic than simply being bullish.

Now look at Bitcoin’s performance this week—it really says a lot. After the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act failed, ETF funds were still flowing out, and a series of negative factors hit. Yet Bitcoin still managed to hold around $76,000. You should know this was achieved under the backdrop of the Fed restarting rate hikes for the first time in three years—not exactly weak.

Of course, you also can’t overinterpret it. The level of 76,000 was previously labeled by Glassnode as the “true market mean.” Now the price is hovering around it repeatedly. Whether it can hold above that level—or falls below—may be more worth watching than VanEck’s $100,000 target.

Put simply: VanEck’s prediction is about next year. In between are a whole set of variables— the Fed’s path, oil prices, regulation, and ETF fund flows. You can treat it as a reference for a long-term direction, but don’t treat it as a basis for short-term trading.

What institutions are doing already answers the question: buy spot while also buying put options—optimistic for the long run, defensive in the short run. If retail investors insist on learning, learn this stance; don’t get excited and go all-in.

Risk warning: The content above is an objective整理 based on publicly available market information and institutional viewpoints, and does not constitute any investment advice. $100,000 is a forecast, not a commitment. Market volatility #币安 #币安广场