🗓️ Sep 18｜Crypto Daily
The broader market steadied a bit amid the panic after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, but it feels more like stabilization than a trend reversal.
As of 09:00 (Beijing time):
BTC $76,547, 24h +0.47%
ETH $2,447, 24h +1.41%
SOL $101.37, 24h +2.96%
Total market cap across the board is about $2.63 trillion, 24h -2.04%; trading volume is about $78.8 billion, down 15.6% from the previous day. BTC’s market share is 58.13%. Prices are up, yet total market cap remains negative—this suggests the rebound isn’t uniform. Capital is still prioritizing the mainstream coins, and market sentiment can only be considered “bleeding control,” not a full reversal.
The most important things today:
1、The U.S. Senate blocked the proposed Crypto Market Structure Bill from further progress by a 49:50 vote. With the rule implementation continuing to be pushed back, the short-term impact is a policy discount; in the long run, the focus of contention between both parties has shifted from “whether to regulate” to “how to regulate.”
2、The Federal Reserve hiked 25 bps this week, raising the policy rate to 3.75%-4.00%—the first hike since 2023. The market didn’t keep selling off; instead, it showed signs of repair. This suggests the worst-case expectations were already priced in, but the higher-rate squeeze on risk-asset valuations hasn’t ended.
3、On Sep 17, the SEC formally rolled out the “Innovation Exemption,” allowing qualifying platforms to conduct limited, time-bound tests of trading tokenized securities such as U.S. stock on-chain, with requirements for transparency, trading volume, and technical risk controls. RWA and on-chain capital markets have finally gained a real, workable regulatory sandbox.
4、This month, Liquid Network saw about 4,000 abnormal BTC withdrawal events, involving funds that at one point exceeded $300 million. The network then paused new transactions and fixed the issue. Whether the funds are returned or not, this once again underscores that systemic risks in cross-chain, sidechain, and custody structures are far more important than the superficial APR.
Next, watch three time points:
• Today: The Bank of Japan’s interest-rate decision and the Ueda Kazuo press conference could amplify volatility in the yen and global liquidity.
• This evening 21:15 (Beijing time): U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization.
• This evening 21:30: Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s remarks—focus on the subsequent rate-hike path and the tone on financial regulation.
My view: BTC can still hold near 76,000. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL show stronger rebound elasticity, indicating the market isn’t devoid of buyers—rather, buy-side demand is extremely selective. On the policy front, one hand is blocking the bill, while the other opens a test gate for on-chain securities; the direction isn’t pessimistic. But the macro environment still doesn’t support blindly chasing rallies.
Trading strategy: Don’t chase. Buy mainstream coins in batches on pullbacks. Keep short-term position size at a level you can withstand, with tolerance for 5%-8% volatility. If key support breaks, admit the mistake and don’t keep emotions in the trade.
Risk warning: The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—please control leverage and position size.
The broader market steadied a bit amid the panic after the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, but it feels more like stabilization than a trend reversal.
As of 09:00 (Beijing time):
BTC $76,547, 24h +0.47%
ETH $2,447, 24h +1.41%
SOL $101.37, 24h +2.96%
Total market cap across the board is about $2.63 trillion, 24h -2.04%; trading volume is about $78.8 billion, down 15.6% from the previous day. BTC’s market share is 58.13%. Prices are up, yet total market cap remains negative—this suggests the rebound isn’t uniform. Capital is still prioritizing the mainstream coins, and market sentiment can only be considered “bleeding control,” not a full reversal.
The most important things today:
1、The U.S. Senate blocked the proposed Crypto Market Structure Bill from further progress by a 49:50 vote. With the rule implementation continuing to be pushed back, the short-term impact is a policy discount; in the long run, the focus of contention between both parties has shifted from “whether to regulate” to “how to regulate.”
2、The Federal Reserve hiked 25 bps this week, raising the policy rate to 3.75%-4.00%—the first hike since 2023. The market didn’t keep selling off; instead, it showed signs of repair. This suggests the worst-case expectations were already priced in, but the higher-rate squeeze on risk-asset valuations hasn’t ended.
3、On Sep 17, the SEC formally rolled out the “Innovation Exemption,” allowing qualifying platforms to conduct limited, time-bound tests of trading tokenized securities such as U.S. stock on-chain, with requirements for transparency, trading volume, and technical risk controls. RWA and on-chain capital markets have finally gained a real, workable regulatory sandbox.
4、This month, Liquid Network saw about 4,000 abnormal BTC withdrawal events, involving funds that at one point exceeded $300 million. The network then paused new transactions and fixed the issue. Whether the funds are returned or not, this once again underscores that systemic risks in cross-chain, sidechain, and custody structures are far more important than the superficial APR.
Next, watch three time points:
• Today: The Bank of Japan’s interest-rate decision and the Ueda Kazuo press conference could amplify volatility in the yen and global liquidity.
• This evening 21:15 (Beijing time): U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization.
• This evening 21:30: Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s remarks—focus on the subsequent rate-hike path and the tone on financial regulation.
My view: BTC can still hold near 76,000. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL show stronger rebound elasticity, indicating the market isn’t devoid of buyers—rather, buy-side demand is extremely selective. On the policy front, one hand is blocking the bill, while the other opens a test gate for on-chain securities; the direction isn’t pessimistic. But the macro environment still doesn’t support blindly chasing rallies.
Trading strategy: Don’t chase. Buy mainstream coins in batches on pullbacks. Keep short-term position size at a level you can withstand, with tolerance for 5%-8% volatility. If key support breaks, admit the mistake and don’t keep emotions in the trade.
Risk warning: The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile—please control leverage and position size.