#CLARITY法案参议院程序性投票 49–50 not approved
On September 15 in the US East, the debate voting ended. It required 60 votes to move into formal consideration in the Senate. The motion failed. This does not mean the bill is permanently dead, but advancing it within the year is basically unlikely.
Voting overview
- 49 votes in favor, 50 against, 1 person did not vote; it fell short of the 60-vote threshold
- The House of Representatives has already passed the bill; in the Senate it has stalled due to disagreements between the two parties, lobbying by the banking industry, and a provision addressing encrypted interest conflicts for public officials
- Polymarket prediction market: the probability of the bill becoming law within 2026 has plummeted from 30%+ to 5%
Original goal of the bill
To divide regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, and to establish a unified federal regulatory framework for US spot crypto, trading platforms, and stablecoins—providing a compliance basis for institutions to enter the market.
Immediate market reaction
- BTC slumped rapidly in the short term, briefly dropping to around $74,900; losses for ETH and SOL were even larger
- US listed crypto-related stocks tumbled sharply: Coinbase and Circle fell significantly
Support logic
1. The bill is only procedurally stalled; the text remains on the Senate schedule, and theoretically it could be modified and re-submitted for a vote in the future
2. The policy narrative has shifted: the market’s attention turns to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.R.8957), which was passed by the House Financial Services Committee 28–21 and is becoming the near-term policy focus
3. ETF capital flows and buying demand from long-term on-chain holders; some hedging may cushion negative regulatory expectations
Downside risks
1. The implementation of a comprehensive US crypto regulatory framework is delayed significantly; the regulatory vacuum persists, constraining the timing of institutional entry
2. Enforcement-driven regulatory mode returns; risks of SEC/CFTC case-based lawsuits and administrative penalties increase
3. As the election cycle approaches, the congressional session window tightens, making it difficult to gather 60 cross-party votes with the remaining time in 2026
4. On the sentiment level, pressure suppresses altcoins, DeFi, and stablecoin-related coins, amplifying volatility
Outlook
CLARITY has temporarily exited the main trading theme; the focus shifts to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act’s full House vote, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, and inflation data. If the reserve bill also faces obstacles, policy expectations will weaken further.
⚠️ The above is only a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.
On September 15 in the US East, the debate voting ended. It required 60 votes to move into formal consideration in the Senate. The motion failed. This does not mean the bill is permanently dead, but advancing it within the year is basically unlikely.
Voting overview
- 49 votes in favor, 50 against, 1 person did not vote; it fell short of the 60-vote threshold
- The House of Representatives has already passed the bill; in the Senate it has stalled due to disagreements between the two parties, lobbying by the banking industry, and a provision addressing encrypted interest conflicts for public officials
- Polymarket prediction market: the probability of the bill becoming law within 2026 has plummeted from 30%+ to 5%
Original goal of the bill
To divide regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, and to establish a unified federal regulatory framework for US spot crypto, trading platforms, and stablecoins—providing a compliance basis for institutions to enter the market.
Immediate market reaction
- BTC slumped rapidly in the short term, briefly dropping to around $74,900; losses for ETH and SOL were even larger
- US listed crypto-related stocks tumbled sharply: Coinbase and Circle fell significantly
Support logic
1. The bill is only procedurally stalled; the text remains on the Senate schedule, and theoretically it could be modified and re-submitted for a vote in the future
2. The policy narrative has shifted: the market’s attention turns to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.R.8957), which was passed by the House Financial Services Committee 28–21 and is becoming the near-term policy focus
3. ETF capital flows and buying demand from long-term on-chain holders; some hedging may cushion negative regulatory expectations
Downside risks
1. The implementation of a comprehensive US crypto regulatory framework is delayed significantly; the regulatory vacuum persists, constraining the timing of institutional entry
2. Enforcement-driven regulatory mode returns; risks of SEC/CFTC case-based lawsuits and administrative penalties increase
3. As the election cycle approaches, the congressional session window tightens, making it difficult to gather 60 cross-party votes with the remaining time in 2026
4. On the sentiment level, pressure suppresses altcoins, DeFi, and stablecoin-related coins, amplifying volatility
Outlook
CLARITY has temporarily exited the main trading theme; the focus shifts to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act’s full House vote, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions, and inflation data. If the reserve bill also faces obstacles, policy expectations will weaken further.
⚠️ The above is only a compilation of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.