Judging by the forecasts, JD Vance is currently the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with 50%. However, the race for second place between Tulsi Gabbard, Glenn Youngkin, and Vivek Ramaswamy (all at 24%) is very tight.

📊 Breakdown by candidates (Republicans)

· JD Vance (50%): The incumbent vice president is the natural successor and has a significant lead in polls of party voters (e.g., 43% vs. 21% for Marco Rubio). However, Donald Trump himself is still refraining from an early endorsement, emphasizing that the party has a “deep bench.”

· Tulsi Gabbard (24%): A former Democrat who switched to the Republican camp. She is known for her unconventional views, which attracts a portion of the electorate tired of traditional politicians.

· Glenn Youngkin (24%): Governor of Virginia—an experienced administrator. His moderate style and practical track record may serve as an alternative for voters who are looking for stability.

· Vivek Ramaswamy (24%): Again showing high figures among conservative activists, remaining a prominent figure despite a decline in media presence.

💡 Should you bet on Vance?

At the moment, Vance is the clear favorite by a wide margin, and the market assesses his chances as “likely.” But in 2028, things may still change—especially if Trump picks a different candidate or if Vance himself faces difficulties in the November election.