Around the current price of 76,550. After the Fed raised rates last night, it spiked down to 75,355, but has pulled back again. By midweek it still dropped about 4%, and sentiment is pretty bad.
Two things are weighing on it: first, the Fed’s first rate hike in three years—rates are at 3.75%-4%, and the dot plot is still somewhat hawkish; second, the Clarity Act failed to pass in the Senate 49:50, so the regulatory expectations fell through. Short-term holders directly dumped 23,000 BTC; total liquidations across the web were over 700 million.
But I noticed a few things that don’t quite seem right. Exchange balances are still falling, big whales are buying—one whale swept 197 coins around 76,000. More importantly, the short position is piled up too heavily: shorts liquidated roughly 4.8 billion in the 75,982 to 83,575 range, while longs account for only about 2.0 billion below. As long as a rebound pushes and holds above 76,500, it’s easy to squeeze the shorts.
Key level: support at 73,500. If it breaks, look for 70,500–72,000. Resistance above: 76,500, 77,100, and 78,000.
My thinking: don’t chase shorts. If taking a short, keep it light; consider only again after above 76,500. Buy in batches from 73,500–74,000, with a stop loss below 72,800. ETF has still seen a net inflow of 3.8 billion over three weeks—institutions haven’t exited. With oil breaking 109 also putting pressure on risk appetite, don’t carry heavy positions.
One-sentence conclusion: the bearish news is temporarily absorbed in the short term, but don’t chase a short on the floor. Let the market choose direction.
Personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC