$BTC
Last night, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, and this time it was approved unanimously. More importantly, of the 18 officials, 16 expect another increase later this year.
So stop focusing on whether they raised rates or not.
The market has already priced this in.
What’s really worth watching is liquidity.
The signals the Fed is sending are very clear: inflation hasn’t fully yielded yet, and policy may still need to remain on the tighter side. In the latest projections, the 2026 PCE inflation forecast is seen at 3.7%, clearly above the 2% target.
That’s interesting.
Many people’s first reaction is:
“Rate hikes = down.”
But trading isn’t that simple.
If the market has already traded the bad news in advance, then once the hike is actually implemented, you could instead see a wave of “bad news being realized.”
Last night, the price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum also showed clear choppiness, not a straightforward selloff.
I’m paying closer attention to two things now:
U.S. Treasury yields + subsequent inflation data.
Especially, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed back to around 5%, suggesting the market is still re-pricing how long high interest rates need to last.
So the real story in the crypto market going forward isn’t just “the Fed raised rates.”
It’s this:
This rate hike—was it the final cut, or the start of the next round of tightening?
This answer may be worth far more than the 25 basis points themselves
Last night, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, and this time it was approved unanimously. More importantly, of the 18 officials, 16 expect another increase later this year.
So stop focusing on whether they raised rates or not.
The market has already priced this in.
What’s really worth watching is liquidity.
The signals the Fed is sending are very clear: inflation hasn’t fully yielded yet, and policy may still need to remain on the tighter side. In the latest projections, the 2026 PCE inflation forecast is seen at 3.7%, clearly above the 2% target.
That’s interesting.
Many people’s first reaction is:
“Rate hikes = down.”
But trading isn’t that simple.
If the market has already traded the bad news in advance, then once the hike is actually implemented, you could instead see a wave of “bad news being realized.”
Last night, the price action in Bitcoin and Ethereum also showed clear choppiness, not a straightforward selloff.
I’m paying closer attention to two things now:
U.S. Treasury yields + subsequent inflation data.
Especially, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed back to around 5%, suggesting the market is still re-pricing how long high interest rates need to last.
So the real story in the crypto market going forward isn’t just “the Fed raised rates.”
It’s this:
This rate hike—was it the final cut, or the start of the next round of tightening?
This answer may be worth far more than the 25 basis points themselves
