# Hot analysis: Key points to watch in the September FOMC meeting
In the past two days, there have been two topics in global financial markets. First, an article by Anthropic’s CEO calling for a slowdown in large-model R&D; a group of big names echoed the call, and then the ‘Wang’ and ‘Lao Huang’ came out to rebut it.
I think AI safety is only a superficial reason. At the core, the issue is that the rate of technology diffusion (i.e., monetization speed) is far lower than the rate of technological progress (i.e., AI spending speed). It’s like a race where someone is bleeding out and sprinting wildly—if they keep it up, the whole industry could collapse.
Therefore we need to control the pace. Once demand comes in, monetization can be made to run smoothly, and at the same time, AI spending may need to slow down. That’s not good news for hardware, but for downstream companies—especially cloud providers with poor cash flow—it may not be a bad thing.
The second point is that the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks above 5%. Since 2007, this is the first time. I looked at Wall Street’s reaction—generally, they set the truly tense threshold at 5.5%. This is the US companies’ nominal earnings growth.
If it breaks, it means the economy’s financing costs exceed its returns, and the economy faces systemic risk. It would also hit both US stocks and US Treasuries. Many bond veterans have clearly said that if it goes above 5.5%, they will shift from “buying the dip” in US Treasuries to “selling with the trend.” At that time, yields could get out of control, triggering a major adjustment across the financial system.
Personally, I think the key right now is oil prices. If oil breaks above $120, then the 5.5% level is unlikely to hold.
Tomorrow’s Fed meeting will most likely involve a rate hike. Focus on three aspects.
-A number of committee members voted against the rate hike
-How many rate hikes does the dot plot imply this year, and how many next year? (This year’s three most hawkish voters will all be replaced next year, and replaced with more dovish ones.) -Waller’s remarks: do they indicate dovish language about preventive rate hikes?
The biggest uncertainty here is the third point.
-If Waller takes a tough stance and a hawkish posture, it means there may be several more rate hikes ahead. He will firmly wage a battle against inflation to the end. In that case, US stocks could face a 10% pullback, and gold would weaken too—and it will be difficult to repair by the end of the year.
-If Waller takes a dovish route in his speech and imitates Greenspan, then the market will most likely drop first and then rise. The turning point for the rise lies in oil prices breaking below 100 and returning to the 80–90 range.
Gold has been jumping around these past few days, but it has stayed above 4300.
—looks fairly resilient.
From tonight’s Senate hearing, the BTC/large-cap rally from recent levels looks somewhat ominous. It may face a pullback cycle. Support is around 70,000–73,000 (USD).
A-shares continue to shrink in volume today, at 1.62 trillion. And the STAR Market is up 1.5%, which suggests tech chips can’t be washed out anymore. Everyone just lies flat and waits for the dead time to pass. There are also the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day coming up. Most likely, it will keep grinding down—until overseas developments become clear, then we can move into the next phase of the market. My baseline scenario is: a rate hike (no one objects). The dot plot implies another rate hike in December. Waller’s “preventive rate hike” management expectation. The market will tick down slightly, and I’ll continue to watch oil prices.