Breaking: The Fed is within touching distance of neutral.
Current funds rate: 3.50%–3.75%
Fed’s own longer-run estimate: 3.1%
If they hike today: 3.75%–4.00%
That’s the whole meeting.
One quarter-point move and policy is no longer “below neutral” on the Fed’s own map.
Neutral is not a fact. It’s an estimate. And estimates move.
Education, not advice.
Current funds rate: 3.50%–3.75%
Fed’s own longer-run estimate: 3.1%
If they hike today: 3.75%–4.00%
That’s the whole meeting.
One quarter-point move and policy is no longer “below neutral” on the Fed’s own map.
Neutral is not a fact. It’s an estimate. And estimates move.
Education, not advice.
