灼见

2026.9.15 Tue
Good morning, babies

US Stock Market Trends

Dow Jones 　　　　 0.29%　52421
NASDAQ 　　　　 0.56%　26186
NASDAQ100　　　 0.82%　29127
S&P500　　　　　 0.48%　7619

The US stock market closed lower again. Senior executives from several AI-related companies expressed concerns about AI safety and urged slowing down AI development, causing semiconductor stocks—led by NVIDIA—to fall and become one of the main factors dragging the broader market down. In addition, US 10-year Treasury yields briefly broke above 5%, further adding to market pressure.

According to the CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points on the 16th is now up to 90%.

Longbow Asset Management stated:

Breaking 10-year Treasury yields above 5% is a very significant event and sends many signals. This may force the Fed to respond with rate hikes more than once.

BTC:
Last night, BTC rose and briefly fell to around $76,000, but then gradually climbed back to 79,570. It is currently trading around $78,000.

Early tomorrow morning, the vote on the CLARITY Act is about to take place. Also, Trump has made a concession on moral standards for political figures trading cryptocurrencies, which has further increased market expectations that the bill will move forward smoothly—this could be one of the reasons for a BTC rebound.

The 4-hour chart has already broken above all EMA lines again.

From a technical perspective, BTC still maintains a relatively resilient trend. If the vote goes through tonight as well, the chances of breaking above the recent high of $82,200 are also worth expecting. If it fails, closely watch the key support at $76,000; if that level breaks, the pullback could be fairly deep. Support at $71,300--$72,200 is relatively strong. ETH is watching 2407.

The vote is expected to take place at 02:30 Beijing time on 9/16.

XLM:
Last night, XLM rose 9% and is currently trading around $0.19.

This upswing pushed the price back through the dense EMA area on the daily chart, and the technical structure has clearly strengthened.

However, in the short term, the price is still being suppressed by the $0.20 resistance line, so it cannot rise further for now. Whether it can break through this level will be the key going forward.

Given that XLM’s overall recent trend has been relatively resilient—and the bottom has already been consolidating for a period—if it can break above $0.20 next, the likelihood of further developing a short-term uptrend remains quite high.
Wishing you all a wonderful day today, babies!

16 years ago, with just $1 you could buy 1309 of $BTC

1 USD = 1309 Bitcoin

$ETH is currently in a critical game period ahead of the release of macroeconomic data. The coin price has been oscillating repeatedly in the $2,400–$2,600 range, and the market is focused on capital flows and the Fed’s policy decision.
🧧🧧🧧
ETH has recently seen wide fluctuations between $2,430 and $2,666. After several failed attempts to break through $2,666, it has pulled back. It is currently ranging around $2,500.
The overhead resistance levels are $2,550, $2,570, and then $2,666. Only after holding above $2,666 would it have the potential to attempt a push toward $2,700–$2,740.
The daily chart has been closing in the red consecutively, overall trend remains weak, and any short-term rebound is likely to be limited. This is a corrective move within a downtrend.

Waking up early isn’t for making a living—
it’s to have the confidence to choose how to live.
Good morning to every hardworking version of yourself.

🍃🧧🧧🧧Midday rest—set a tea table to cultivate calm, keeping away from the noise of the order book📊

Only when nature rests can it stretch and unfold; trading is about knowing how to wait🕊️.
Don’t chase every wave of fluctuation—sink your mind and quietly observe market changes✨.
Hold to your original intention and risk control, accumulate strength and wait for the right opportunity💎.
Wishing fellow travelers—may you have inner calm, and move forward with ease [heart]🧧🧧🧧
#比特币守稳77000美元上方
#交易心理
#1688家族family

I made money—earned 48 US dollars. Now playing event contracts is getting harder and harder. Getting some real “meat” is really not easy. My daily living expenses are in hand.
（ps: I’m recovering; when I’m back, I’ll stream steadily again. The preliminary plan is still the same old schedule: event contract at 7:00 AM, and perpetual contract at 10:00 PM）

Just saw BNB Chain gearing up to launch the Payment Lane for Q4.

Simply put:
If the chain gets clogged again, they’ll also have to keep a lane open for transfers for us 😂

The market always tells stories every day,
but I actually prefer this kind of thing where they’re truly repairing the road.

Comment section: “bnb”.

Send a few red envelopes, and wait for Q4 together with $BNB.$BNB

Maintain a peaceful mindset, stay calm, and wait for the right moment.
There's no need to rush for the moment—be patient and hold on steadfastly, and the beautiful things will surely arrive as promised ✨

Rushing to mountains and seas, collecting every inch of light, letting beauty happen naturally in the scenery.
Chase mountains and shores, capture every ray, let beauty unfold naturally.

$Hawk 佛 only guides those who are destined/“fated” to it! #Hawk doesn’t expect everyone to understand it or be able to hold onto it!
#Hawk only guides those who have wisdom and are worthy of it❗️

Confidence is the most beautiful light! Dare to chase your dreams and give it your all. Every effort is the power to achieve a better version of yourself. Believe in yourself, let your brilliance shine—your exciting life is created by you!

Today’s Bitcoin (BTC) price action is relatively strong. The price has moved above $79,000, with about a 2% gain over the past 24 hours. The intraday low was around $76,375, and a clear rebound has emerged.
$BTC $ETH $GOOGL.US #比特币守稳77000美元上方 #美联储加息概率升至89%

Good morning💗
$BNB 🧧
The best way to live is to know how to accept its difficulties
And to be grateful for the warmth that time has bestowed!
#1688家族family

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?

After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.

Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.

Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.

This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.

As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.

If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)

If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.

One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.

Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes!
$BZ

$CL

Energy

🧧 Red Box Support Squad — Let’s Grow Together! 🚀

Red Box lovers, let’s support each other and grow together! ❤️

Follow, like, comment, and support the community. Let’s build a strong squad where everyone gets a chance to grow and reach new milestones. 🤝🔥

If you support me, I’ll support you back! 💯

Let’s grow together, stay active, and spread the support! 🚀🧧

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I HIT 20,000… SO I’M GIVING AWAY BITCOIN. ₿🧧

Not a typo.
Not a “coming soon.”

$BTC to the people who got me here. 🧡

20,000 followers is more than a milestone.

It’s 20,000 people who chose to follow the journey.
20,000 people who liked, commented, shared, supported.
And honestly… I wouldn’t be here without you.

So instead of just posting a “thank you”…

🎁 I’M GIVING BACK.

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How to enter:
✅ Follow @Bilverse
❤️ Like this post
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20,000 was only the beginning.
Let’s make this community even bigger. 🚀

GOOD LUCK, FAM. 👑🧡

#BTC #Bilverse #RedPacketMission