Tonight is more likely to see a 25bp rate hike, not a cut. I put several sets of data together to look at it: 1) In August, CPI rose 0.4% month over month, core CPI rose 0.3%, and inflation has not shown any clear cooling. 2) PPI rose 0.4% month over month and about 5.4% year over year; upstream price pressure is still there. 3) August non-farm payrolls added 162,000, while the market had only expected about 56,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, and employment was much stronger than expected. 4) Although the July meeting kept the range at 3.50%-3.75%, the vote was 9 to 3—three dissenters already wanted a 25bp hike at that time. 5) The interest-rate market currently has about 88.5% odds pricing in a 25bp hike tonight to 3.75%-4.00%. So my view is: the probability of a hike is about 85%-90%; holding steady is about 10%-15%; and the probability of a cut is close to 0. However, the hike itself has already been traded up to a large extent—the real driver for the coin price is the dot plot and the press conference. If after the hike the outlook hints that further hikes could come within the year, then if BTC breaks below 74970 it may test 74000; if ETH breaks below 2359 it could stay relatively weak. If it’s just one hike and then the outlook remains in a wait-and-see mode, it could actually follow-through as a “sell the news” (bearish) outcome. If BTC reclaims 76250 and holds, then watch for 77300; for ETH, only when it gets back into the 2420-2450 zone can we say the damage is repaired. The decision and dot plot will be released at 02:00 Beijing time, and the press conference will start at 02:30. Don’t chase the first spike—two waves of volatility could move in completely opposite directions. Sources: the Federal Reserve website, U.S. inflation and employment data, Reuters, and Binance public market data. For personal review only and does not constitute investment advice.