I’m watching this round of ETH for now. I’m not chasing it halfway up. The current price is around 2403–2405, and the 1-hour RSI has already recovered to about 62, which looks noticeably better than before—but what I care about most, 2415, still hasn’t been broken open. In the previous rounds, I kept saying that ETH below 2415 can only be considered a weak recovery, not a trend reversal. Now that the indicators have recovered, but the price still hasn’t crossed the threshold—so that judgment hasn’t been overturned.

From the structure, ETH is still down about 3% over the past 24 hours. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is only around 25, and the bigger timeframe remains bearish. The funding rate has turned slightly negative, which means bullish sentiment hasn’t fully come back. A short-term RSI rebound doesn’t mean the bulls have won—it only means the drop was too fast before, and now the price is catching its breath. The real thing that can change the pace is whether 2415 can hold above it, or whether the 2356 area gets tested again.

If I were trading by myself, I wouldn’t chase longs around 2405. My plan is: when ETH shows volume and breaks above 2415, and then pulls back to 2405–2410 without breaking below it, I will use 3%–5% of the principal to try a long. The first target is 2438, then 2448–2456. If it falls back below 2390, I will withdraw directly. On the other hand, if ETH fails to break through 2415 and then drops below 2380, I’ll consider a small-position short. The target is 2356, and the stop loss would be moved back above 2415.

My current sentiment on ETH is cautious. I’m not bearish, but I’m also not excited. It’s certainly a bit more stable than before, but being a bit stable doesn’t mean it’s strong. My trading style is still to wait for confirmation—I won’t announce a reversal to the market early just because price is below a resistance level. If it’s a real breakout, I’ll follow; if it’s just a fake recovery, I’ll keep waiting. I’d rather be slow than messy. Especially in this macro-sensitive window, execution discipline matters more than guessing the direction. Position sizing also has to be light—don’t act impulsively, and don’t change the plan just because of a single small bullish candle.

The above is only personal market observations and does not constitute investment advice.

$ETH