Record tonight’s gold trading plan. I’ve already closed most of my long-term short positions. With the probability of further rate hikes very high, I’ll base the plan on the expectation of a rate hike and consider a few scenarios:
1) A dovish rate hike: similar to the last CPI data—announce a rate hike, then briefly dip downward (“stab” lower) before recovering. Plan: go long below 4300, loosen the stop-loss a bit, and only allocate half the position. I think this is the most likely scenario.
2) Announce a rate hike while signaling the intention for consecutive hikes: keep the short positions open. But I don’t think this is likely. The semiconductor sector started to rally early today.
3) No hike, followed by a strong bounce (“straight up”): then I won’t trade tonight.
TL;DR: If the market dips lower to “stab down” and you plan to catch longs, then place the trade; otherwise, do nothing and wait for the next opportunity. #黄金 #美联储加息是否已成定局
1) A dovish rate hike: similar to the last CPI data—announce a rate hike, then briefly dip downward (“stab” lower) before recovering. Plan: go long below 4300, loosen the stop-loss a bit, and only allocate half the position. I think this is the most likely scenario.
2) Announce a rate hike while signaling the intention for consecutive hikes: keep the short positions open. But I don’t think this is likely. The semiconductor sector started to rally early today.
3) No hike, followed by a strong bounce (“straight up”): then I won’t trade tonight.
TL;DR: If the market dips lower to “stab down” and you plan to catch longs, then place the trade; otherwise, do nothing and wait for the next opportunity. #黄金 #美联储加息是否已成定局