I’m looking at BTC this round, and my stance is still a bit cautious—I'm not in a rush to chase longs. The price has rebounded to around 75,900; it does look better than it did around 74,896 this morning. But the key issue hasn’t changed: the “barrier” at 76,350 hasn’t been truly reclaimed yet. I’ve kept saying this—if BTC holds 74,896, you shouldn’t blindly look for a collapse. But if 76,350 can’t hold, you also can’t treat a weak rebound as a trend reversal. What the market has played out so far is basically a continuation of that line.

From the indicators: the 15-minute RSI is already around 64, so the short-term recovery isn’t weak. However, the 1-hour RSI is only around 42, and the 4-hour RSI is just about 42 as well—this suggests the larger timeframe hasn’t truly turned bullish yet; it’s only catching its breath after being oversold. The funding rate is still slightly positive, meaning the market isn’t entirely pessimistic. The issue is that longs are still paying, but the price hasn’t been able to take back the overhead resistance in one go. For this kind of market, I’d be relatively cautious. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate decision window is still ahead, and risk assets tend to be sensitive to interest-rate expectations and USD fluctuations. At a spot like this, BTC isn’t suitable for emotionally chasing orders.

If it were my own trading, most likely I would continue to watch from the sidelines and would not go all-in betting on a breakout. There are only two situations in which I would take action: First, if the price rises with volume and holds above 76350, and on the pullback it stays above 76000-76150 without breaking it, I would use 3%-5% of the principal to try going long. The first target would be 76800, and the second target would be 77324. If it falls back below 75600, I would withdraw immediately and not let the trial trade turn into a long-term position that gets stuck at a loss. Second, if around 76350 it continues to fail to break through, and the 1-hour chart falls back below 74896, only then would I consider trying a short position with a small position size. The targets would be 74500-74200, with a stop loss set back above 75600.

To put it simply, it’s not that there’s no opportunity here, but that the level of confirmation isn’t enough yet. I’d rather miss out on the earliest part of the breakout profits, and I don’t want to be the one taking deliveries under the pressure level for someone else. For me today, BTC is basically one sentence: hold the line. If you can’t get back to 76350, don’t rush to go long.

The above is only my personal market observations and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC