September 16 Early News | The Clarity Act was rejected; 120,000 liquidations hit, and 76,000 is the last line of defense before the FOMC
First, let’s look at price
BTC is currently around 76,200-76,600. After news broke early this morning that the Clarity Act was rejected by the Senate, Bitcoin plunged more than 5% to 74,965, the lowest since June. Then it bounced slightly back above 76,000 and is currently hovering around 76,200. In the past 24 hours, it’s down more than 3%.
ETH briefly crashed more than 8% to around 2,406. XRP is down more than 10%, SOL down more than 5%, while DOGE, ZEC, and HYPE are down more than 4%.
I watched the whole process unfold on the screen last night. When the Senate vote results came out at around 3:00 a.m., BTC was above 77,000. Within 20 minutes, it smashed through 76,000 and 75,500, hitting a low of 74,965. 1.2 million people?—No, 120,000 traders were liquidated, and $670 million was wiped out. This market never gives you time to react.
Probability take: I think the downside probability is slightly higher. The rejection of the Clarity Act is a substantial negative. The probability of a rate hike tonight by the FOMC is over 90%. 76,000 may hold for the first test, but it likely won’t hold for the second.
Today’s key variables: ① FOMC rate decision (tonight at 2:00 a.m.) — the probability of a 25bp hike is over 90%; the first-ever press conference by the Was(h) ② Continued digestion of the Clarity Act rejection ③ Whether 76,000 can be defended
Why I think downside is more likely: three reasons:
First, the Clarity Act was rejected—an attempt at the most system-wide legislation for the crypto industry has failed.
On September 15, in U.S. Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate rejected a motion to advance the “Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act” by a vote of 50 to 49. That is far below the 60 votes needed to clear procedural hurdles.
Four Republican senators switched sides, joining the Democrats to vote against it.
The Democrats cited controversy over provisions in the bill related to conflicts of interest involving Trump’s crypto business interests.
A direct quote from Lummis, a leading figure in the crypto industry in the Senate, was: “If the procedural vote fails, it’s all over.” The bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for banks, broker-dealers, and asset management institutions to participate in digital asset trading. If the bill is rejected, it means the crypto industry will face a regulatory vacuum for at least another year.
First, let’s look at price
BTC is currently around 76,200-76,600. After news broke early this morning that the Clarity Act was rejected by the Senate, Bitcoin plunged more than 5% to 74,965, the lowest since June. Then it bounced slightly back above 76,000 and is currently hovering around 76,200. In the past 24 hours, it’s down more than 3%.
ETH briefly crashed more than 8% to around 2,406. XRP is down more than 10%, SOL down more than 5%, while DOGE, ZEC, and HYPE are down more than 4%.
I watched the whole process unfold on the screen last night. When the Senate vote results came out at around 3:00 a.m., BTC was above 77,000. Within 20 minutes, it smashed through 76,000 and 75,500, hitting a low of 74,965. 1.2 million people?—No, 120,000 traders were liquidated, and $670 million was wiped out. This market never gives you time to react.
Probability take: I think the downside probability is slightly higher. The rejection of the Clarity Act is a substantial negative. The probability of a rate hike tonight by the FOMC is over 90%. 76,000 may hold for the first test, but it likely won’t hold for the second.
Today’s key variables: ① FOMC rate decision (tonight at 2:00 a.m.) — the probability of a 25bp hike is over 90%; the first-ever press conference by the Was(h) ② Continued digestion of the Clarity Act rejection ③ Whether 76,000 can be defended
Why I think downside is more likely: three reasons:
First, the Clarity Act was rejected—an attempt at the most system-wide legislation for the crypto industry has failed.
On September 15, in U.S. Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate rejected a motion to advance the “Digital Asset Market Structure Clarity Act” by a vote of 50 to 49. That is far below the 60 votes needed to clear procedural hurdles.
Four Republican senators switched sides, joining the Democrats to vote against it.
The Democrats cited controversy over provisions in the bill related to conflicts of interest involving Trump’s crypto business interests.
A direct quote from Lummis, a leading figure in the crypto industry in the Senate, was: “If the procedural vote fails, it’s all over.” The bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for banks, broker-dealers, and asset management institutions to participate in digital asset trading. If the bill is rejected, it means the crypto industry will face a regulatory vacuum for at least another year.