📊 90% of people are betting on tonight’s rate hike. I think it will happen, but I don’t agree with the idea of a “restart of the rate-hiking cycle.”
Tomorrow at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. There will also be a press conference and economic projections at 2:30 a.m. The market is currently pricing this hike at just over 60% before the CPI is released, and then it gradually climbed to nearly 90%.
First, let’s look at why it could happen. In August, the core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, higher than the expected 0.2%—the biggest single-month increase since April. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, and gasoline alone contributed one third of the monthly increase. Energy is driving it—this is a supply-side story.
But core year over year has eased from 2.5% to 2.4%.
So my view is: this time they will raise rates by 25 basis points. In nature, it’s more like an insurance-style calibration—not the starting point of a new rate-hiking cycle. The pace afterward depends on the dot plot at 2:30. Tonight’s rate decision itself isn’t that important. If the dot plot suggests there will be a second move later in the year, then the market’s current optimistic pricing needs to be recalculated.
Here’s how I account for the three asset classes.
$BTC is currently at 75,591, down 3.09% over the past 24 hours, and today’s low was 74,967. It’s been selling off ahead of the pack. With the 90% pricing, cutting 25 basis points isn’t new information. If the bad news is fully digested, a rebound is likely. But if the dot plot comes in hawkish, then any rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure. What I’m watching is where the first daily candle after the decision closes.
Tech stocks are even more direct. The Nasdaq’s latest close is 25,981.57, down 0.78%. The higher the valuation, the more sensitive it is to the discount rate. As long as the dot plot hints at another move this year, the “valuation-killing” story will have to continue to play out.
Gold is actually steady. The COMEX December contract is quoted at $4,327.1. It’s down only 0.13%. Rising real rates weigh on it, but central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support it. They’re pulling in opposite directions. If the hike is what digs the pit, I’m inclined to treat it as a window for building positions in batches—not as a reason to stop out.
As for my own positioning—honestly, I’m currently in cash with no position. I went heavy before the decision and bet on direction; when I’m right, it’s luck, and when I’m wrong, it’s discipline. Once the dot plot comes out and the first daily candle has closed, I’ll reassess whether BTC is back above 76,000 or breaks down below 74,900.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
Tomorrow at around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. There will also be a press conference and economic projections at 2:30 a.m. The market is currently pricing this hike at just over 60% before the CPI is released, and then it gradually climbed to nearly 90%.
First, let’s look at why it could happen. In August, the core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, higher than the expected 0.2%—the biggest single-month increase since April. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, and gasoline alone contributed one third of the monthly increase. Energy is driving it—this is a supply-side story.
But core year over year has eased from 2.5% to 2.4%.
So my view is: this time they will raise rates by 25 basis points. In nature, it’s more like an insurance-style calibration—not the starting point of a new rate-hiking cycle. The pace afterward depends on the dot plot at 2:30. Tonight’s rate decision itself isn’t that important. If the dot plot suggests there will be a second move later in the year, then the market’s current optimistic pricing needs to be recalculated.
Here’s how I account for the three asset classes.
$BTC is currently at 75,591, down 3.09% over the past 24 hours, and today’s low was 74,967. It’s been selling off ahead of the pack. With the 90% pricing, cutting 25 basis points isn’t new information. If the bad news is fully digested, a rebound is likely. But if the dot plot comes in hawkish, then any rebound is an opportunity to reduce exposure. What I’m watching is where the first daily candle after the decision closes.
Tech stocks are even more direct. The Nasdaq’s latest close is 25,981.57, down 0.78%. The higher the valuation, the more sensitive it is to the discount rate. As long as the dot plot hints at another move this year, the “valuation-killing” story will have to continue to play out.
Gold is actually steady. The COMEX December contract is quoted at $4,327.1. It’s down only 0.13%. Rising real rates weigh on it, but central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand support it. They’re pulling in opposite directions. If the hike is what digs the pit, I’m inclined to treat it as a window for building positions in batches—not as a reason to stop out.
As for my own positioning—honestly, I’m currently in cash with no position. I went heavy before the decision and bet on direction; when I’m right, it’s luck, and when I’m wrong, it’s discipline. Once the dot plot comes out and the first daily candle has closed, I’ll reassess whether BTC is back above 76,000 or breaks down below 74,900.
#美联储加息是否已成定局
