Wait-and-see, slightly bearish—don’t chase. ZEC is currently around 1121. In the past 24 hours it’s still down about 3.5%, but the order book hasn’t kept getting smashed through, which suggests the short side isn’t completely smooth either. The 1-hour RSI is around 46, while the 15-minute RSI has bounced back to 52. The oversold rebound has already run for a bit, but the 4-hour RSI is only around 48—so it’s not really strong yet. My take: it can rebound from here, but the rebound’s odds are no longer as favorable as they were at the earlier low.

I’m mainly focused on two levels. Below, 1085 is the low of the last ~20 1-hour candlesticks in this area, and it’s the support that this weak rebound must not lose. If it breaks, ZEC is likely to go look for deeper support again, and short-term longs shouldn’t stubbornly hold on. Above, 1159 is resistance from the same time cycle. Until price reclaims it, I only see this as a consolidation and repair move, not a trend reversal.

More troublesome is that the funding rate is still positive, around 0.0071%, which indicates that the long side hasn’t fully cooled off. The price isn’t strengthening, and the funding is still a bit heated. In this kind of structure, I generally won’t rush to chase it. If I really were to do it, I can only wait for a pullback that doesn’t break 1085, and then look for a 15-minute breakout on volume back at 1135; otherwise I’d rather miss it than buy in emotionally halfway up a hill. The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

$ZEC