The global oil market has just received major new developments, but it also faces consecutive supply shocks as both Saudi Arabia and Libya have simultaneously reported serious incidents. According to Reuters and transportation sources, oil exports at Yanbu—the largest Saudi export port—had to be halted after an attack hit the East-West pipeline. At the same time, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) warned that it may declare a force majeure situation after protests led to the closure of the Hamada-Zawiya pipeline, forcing the shutdown of two main loading terminals, Hamada and Takhara, along with 100 pumping stations ceasing operation completely.

These supply disruptions occur at a time when the oil market is already very fragile amid geopolitical risks. The sudden spike in supply uncertainty triggered a wave of panic buying from the Middle East to North Africa, causing Brent crude prices to surge 2.00% in the day, exceeding 105.21 USD per barrel, and driving concerns about another energy price shock.

The escalation in oil prices casts a shadow over the outlook for inflation control worldwide. Higher energy costs will directly impact CPI, pushing major central banks—especially the Fed—to keep monetary policy restrictive and maintain interest rates at elevated levels for longer. This continues to support the USD and puts significant pressure on both the stock market and bond yields.

For the crypto market, oil prices holding at high levels is a negative sign for risk-on capital flows.