Bitcoin (BTC) is rebounding after a summer slump: over the past two months, the price has jumped by ~40% — from the July low of $58,500 to the $82,000 mark. However, Darkfost analysts warn: the main fuel for a sustained bullish rally is still missing — the market lacks stablecoins and spot demand.

📊 Key factors behind the current rally

➡️ Derivatives vs. Spot: The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta remains neutral, indicating weak spot demand. The current momentum is formed mainly by the futures market.

➡️ Stablecoin outflow: Stablecoin reserves on Binance have fallen by nearly $7 billion from their peak (over $50 billion). Although they increased by $1.6 billion over the past month, that’s not enough to fully restore liquidity.

➡️ Technical picture: The Daily RSI reached 67, and the 7-day and 21-day EMAs crossed above the 200-day MA from below for the first time since November 2025.

➡️ Key levels: A break and hold above $80,000–$83,000 will open the way for further growth, while a loss of support at $74,000–$76,000 could put the bullish scenario at risk.

🔥 A hot macroeconomic and political week 🗓️

Whales are still viewing the market sideways (their balances haven’t changed—about 5.23 million BTC), waiting for an entire cascade of events:

1️⃣ US macro data: Release of CPI and PPI. If inflation turns out higher than expected, the probability of a Fed rate hike will increase.

2️⃣ September 15 — US Senate and the CLARITY Act: A procedural vote on advancing legislation regulating digital assets.

3️⃣ September 16 — Fed and Bank of Japan meeting: The US Federal Reserve meeting on the interest rate (markets estimate a 60% probability of a 0.25% rate hike) and updated economic forecasts.

Until stablecoins start flowing onto exchanges en masse, and until spot demand picks up the move, the market will remain sensitive to macroeconomic news and potential elevated volatility.