Brent hits $101 amid the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with just one week left until the Fed meeting. As I’ve mentioned before, if the U.S. raises interest rates by 25 basis points, a move the market is already partially pricing in, we could see monetary conditions tighten, making risk assets less attractive.
That could put pressure on the S&P 500, especially if higher oil prices continue to fuel inflation expectations and, consequently, push Treasury yields higher. And this wouldn’t be limited to the stock market. A deterioration in liquidity conditions and risk appetite could also spill over into the crypto market, which has much higher volatility.
So, with just one week left until the Fed’s decision, Brent back above $100 and yields rising, I believe we need to stay even more vigilant.
The market could keep going higher, but the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly delicate.
$BTC
If Bitcoin doesn’t close this week above $82,200, it could be very bad for the asset, as it would be forming a lower high than the previous top on the weekly chart. And considering the macroeconomic environment, if that plays out, we could see a drop where Bitcoin could form a new bottom below $57,500. It’s also worth highlighting that BTC main long term support is at $54,973.
That could put pressure on the S&P 500, especially if higher oil prices continue to fuel inflation expectations and, consequently, push Treasury yields higher. And this wouldn’t be limited to the stock market. A deterioration in liquidity conditions and risk appetite could also spill over into the crypto market, which has much higher volatility.
So, with just one week left until the Fed’s decision, Brent back above $100 and yields rising, I believe we need to stay even more vigilant.
The market could keep going higher, but the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly delicate.
$BTC
If Bitcoin doesn’t close this week above $82,200, it could be very bad for the asset, as it would be forming a lower high than the previous top on the weekly chart. And considering the macroeconomic environment, if that plays out, we could see a drop where Bitcoin could form a new bottom below $57,500. It’s also worth highlighting that BTC main long term support is at $54,973.
