$SPX $NDX After three straight days of declines in U.S. stocks, the market starts to rebound, but the real test hasn’t come yet
On Thursday, U.S. stock futures edged higher, ending the downward pressure from three consecutive days. Dow Jones futures rose by about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained about 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a modest rebound.
On the surface, it looks like market sentiment is repairing, but we can’t yet say the correction is over—because investors are truly waiting for the upcoming U.S. employment data.
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This employment report is especially important.
Recently, ADP data showed that U.S. private-sector job growth in August added only 38,000 jobs, well below market expectations. And on Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released; it will become a key reference for the market to judge the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
If employment continues to cool, the market may again increase expectations for future rate cuts. With lower rate expectations, bond yields typically fall, which usually gives more breathing room to high-valuation tech stocks.
But if employment data remains strong, or if wage and inflation pressures don’t ease meaningfully, the Fed’s policy space could be limited—and the rebound the stock market just started could face renewed pressure.
There’s another variable we can’t ignore right now.
Oil prices are still at elevated levels. Brent crude is around $95, and tensions in the Middle East continue to add uncertainty to energy prices. If oil prices stay high, inflation pressure could once again affect how the market judges interest rates.
So the real plot for U.S. stocks right now isn’t whether there’s a rebound after three straight losses.
Instead, it’s this: after the employment data comes out, what answer will the market get?
With employment cooling and yields falling, tech stocks may be able to breathe a bit more.
With employment too strong and oil prices staying high, the market may again confront interest-rate pressure.
And this shift will also flow through to BTC and the entire risk-asset market.
Click the avatar to watch the livestream—follow me.
Every day, I’ll help you track the biggest happenings in the crypto world. Not just what news is out there, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
On Thursday, U.S. stock futures edged higher, ending the downward pressure from three consecutive days. Dow Jones futures rose by about 0.2%, S&P 500 futures gained about 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a modest rebound.
On the surface, it looks like market sentiment is repairing, but we can’t yet say the correction is over—because investors are truly waiting for the upcoming U.S. employment data.
Click the link below to follow me 👇🏻
：加入聊天室
This employment report is especially important.
Recently, ADP data showed that U.S. private-sector job growth in August added only 38,000 jobs, well below market expectations. And on Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released; it will become a key reference for the market to judge the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
If employment continues to cool, the market may again increase expectations for future rate cuts. With lower rate expectations, bond yields typically fall, which usually gives more breathing room to high-valuation tech stocks.
But if employment data remains strong, or if wage and inflation pressures don’t ease meaningfully, the Fed’s policy space could be limited—and the rebound the stock market just started could face renewed pressure.
There’s another variable we can’t ignore right now.
Oil prices are still at elevated levels. Brent crude is around $95, and tensions in the Middle East continue to add uncertainty to energy prices. If oil prices stay high, inflation pressure could once again affect how the market judges interest rates.
So the real plot for U.S. stocks right now isn’t whether there’s a rebound after three straight losses.
Instead, it’s this: after the employment data comes out, what answer will the market get?
With employment cooling and yields falling, tech stocks may be able to breathe a bit more.
With employment too strong and oil prices staying high, the market may again confront interest-rate pressure.
And this shift will also flow through to BTC and the entire risk-asset market.
Click the avatar to watch the livestream—follow me.
Every day, I’ll help you track the biggest happenings in the crypto world. Not just what news is out there, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
