Event: Solana SGP-0002 “Double Deflation Proposal” officially passed, with a support rate of 67.001%, achieving the highest governance participation rate in Solana history. The plan doubles the inflation reduction rate from 15% to 30%, and will reduce the additional issuance of about 18.9 million SOL over the next 6 years, reaching the 1.5% terminal inflation floor early in 2029. At the same time, on-chain activity surged: the 7-day average transaction fees approached 9,200 SOL, setting a new all-time high. The 7-day average of non-voting transactions hit 191 million, also a record high. Meme and RWA trades have boosted block space demand. SOL is currently trading at 102.80 USDT.
Key price levels
‑ Resistance: 104.80 (intraday high point), strong resistance 107‑110
‑ Intraday support: 101‑101.50; key level 97.50
‑ Medium-term support: 92‑93 (daily 20‑EMA)
✅ Support rationale
1. Real tightening of token economics: the rate at which inflation falls doubles, reducing the dilution effect. Although staking returns are still declining, it improves SOL’s scarcity narrative and changes the market’s entrenched perception of SOL’s high inflation.
2. Fee revenue hit an all-time high. Real on-chain demand has been realized. Network revenue is linked to token burning, further strengthening the fundamentals flywheel, with on-chain ecosystem activity data serving as supporting evidence.
3. High voter turnout in governance proposals, strong community consensus, which helps advance future fee-burn proposals. In the altcoin season environment, Meme and RWA continue to bring incremental traffic to Solana.
4. Fidelity Wealth’s institutional expectations for adding SOL continue to ferment; on-chain fundamentals + an institutional narrative resonate together.
⚠️ Bearish risk
1. The annualized staking yield is accelerating downward, which will cause some staked capital to flow out, putting pressure on the returns of smaller and mid-sized validators. In the short term, there is a risk of selling pressure.
2. The fee spike is driven by short-term on-chain speculation heat. If the Meme market cools off, the fees will drop quickly and will not permanently remain at the high level of 9,200 SOL.
3. This time, the only proposal was to slow inflation. The proposal to burn all resource fees did not pass, so the increase in the burn amount is limited. Supply contraction will be released gradually over the medium to long term, and will not immediately translate into a sudden surge in price.
4. SOL is a high-beta asset. If BTC pulls back due to macro rate-hike expectations, SOL’s retracement will be significantly larger than the broader market.
Outlook
Optimization of medium-to-long-term token supply logic; in the short term, it’s a bullish narrative that is being realized. Only if volume increases and holds above 104.80 will there be a chance to test the 107‑110 resistance zone; if the 4H timeframe breaks down effectively below 101, then it will retest the 97.50 key level. Key to watch: the continuity of on-chain fee levels, data on staking capital outflows, and BTC market stability.
The above is only market information and analysis and does not constitute investment advice.