Bitcoin bulls still bet on a move to $84,000; September rate-hike expectations heat up, but long-term bullish sentiment remains unchanged
On August 29, after Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, Bitcoin surged and then pulled back. On Friday, it briefly fell to $76,877, down sharply from the overnight high of $81,455, and ultimately closed at $77,557, down 3.39% on the day. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had recorded a double-digit gain on Monday, but the $81,000–$82,500 resistance zone again capped upside.
Powell said the pace of U.S. inflation decline is still not sufficient, and the Fed has “more work to do” before achieving its 2% inflation target. The market accordingly significantly raised its expectations for a September rate hike. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35.4% the previous day to 55.7%.
The hawkish shock also triggered concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions in the crypto market. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market were about $481 million, including more than $360 million in long liquidations. However, long-term bullish sentiment in the market has not turned materially.
According to the prediction market, traders currently assign a 77% probability that Bitcoin’s next major target will be reached at $84,000, and a 23% probability of falling to $55,000; the pullback on Friday has not changed this balance. On the fundamentals front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for 8 straight trading days through Wednesday, accumulating roughly $2.8 billion—its longest streak of consecutive inflows since April. Technically, Bitcoin’s RSI is around 69.7 and has not yet entered the extreme overbought zone that previously triggered pullbacks. If it drops further, the $73,670–$75,157 area will become a key defense zone for bulls, while reclaiming $81,000–$82,500 is crucial for opening up new high territory.
In the short term, Powell’s weakening of forward guidance implies the market lacks a clear policy path before the next policy meeting. Bitcoin may therefore continue to see sharp volatility driven by changes in inflation data and rate-expectations.
On August 29, after Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole annual symposium, Bitcoin surged and then pulled back. On Friday, it briefly fell to $76,877, down sharply from the overnight high of $81,455, and ultimately closed at $77,557, down 3.39% on the day. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had recorded a double-digit gain on Monday, but the $81,000–$82,500 resistance zone again capped upside.
Powell said the pace of U.S. inflation decline is still not sufficient, and the Fed has “more work to do” before achieving its 2% inflation target. The market accordingly significantly raised its expectations for a September rate hike. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35.4% the previous day to 55.7%.
The hawkish shock also triggered concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions in the crypto market. In the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the market were about $481 million, including more than $360 million in long liquidations. However, long-term bullish sentiment in the market has not turned materially.
According to the prediction market, traders currently assign a 77% probability that Bitcoin’s next major target will be reached at $84,000, and a 23% probability of falling to $55,000; the pullback on Friday has not changed this balance. On the fundamentals front, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for 8 straight trading days through Wednesday, accumulating roughly $2.8 billion—its longest streak of consecutive inflows since April. Technically, Bitcoin’s RSI is around 69.7 and has not yet entered the extreme overbought zone that previously triggered pullbacks. If it drops further, the $73,670–$75,157 area will become a key defense zone for bulls, while reclaiming $81,000–$82,500 is crucial for opening up new high territory.
In the short term, Powell’s weakening of forward guidance implies the market lacks a clear policy path before the next policy meeting. Bitcoin may therefore continue to see sharp volatility driven by changes in inflation data and rate-expectations.