All the data is bullish everywhere on the screen: the buy volume at the spot order book is suppressing the sell volume by 1.73x, the long/short account ratio is 1.89, and the share of aggressive buy orders is 53.8%. But what about the price? It’s tightly pinned at 140.77—it can’t go up and it can’t go down. The issue isn’t whether people are looking bullish; it’s that with longs this heavy, why can’t it be pushed through.
First, the derivatives side exposes it: open interest has been stacked up by 2.88% in a day, and the funding rate had 8 consecutive sampling intervals with not even a single positive reading—barely negative all the way. The newly built positions aren’t here to lift the price—nobody is willing to pay a premium just to go long. These positions are meant to push the price down.
The big players are even more direct: the proportion of longs inside their positions dropped by 5.29% over 7 hours. On the account count, longs are still 65%, but by position size they’ve fallen to just 56.5%. Small accounts are shouting “buy,” while the real big money is quietly cutting longs.
What’s holding the price up now is only the spot-side buy wall—it’s taking the bids, not showing a trend. If SPCX turns bearish, the first target is 137.88, and if that breaks then watch for 135.7.
When will the reversal happen: a breakout with volume and a firm hold at 143.12, the funding rate turning positive, and the big players’ long position share bottoming out and turning back up—only then will this new batch of positions truly be bullish, and the short thesis becomes invalid. #spcx $SPCX
First, the derivatives side exposes it: open interest has been stacked up by 2.88% in a day, and the funding rate had 8 consecutive sampling intervals with not even a single positive reading—barely negative all the way. The newly built positions aren’t here to lift the price—nobody is willing to pay a premium just to go long. These positions are meant to push the price down.
The big players are even more direct: the proportion of longs inside their positions dropped by 5.29% over 7 hours. On the account count, longs are still 65%, but by position size they’ve fallen to just 56.5%. Small accounts are shouting “buy,” while the real big money is quietly cutting longs.
What’s holding the price up now is only the spot-side buy wall—it’s taking the bids, not showing a trend. If SPCX turns bearish, the first target is 137.88, and if that breaks then watch for 135.7.
When will the reversal happen: a breakout with volume and a firm hold at 143.12, the funding rate turning positive, and the big players’ long position share bottoming out and turning back up—only then will this new batch of positions truly be bullish, and the short thesis becomes invalid. #spcx $SPCX
