- Ethereum’s price rose from $1,510 to $2,535 after a “double bottom” pattern formed.
- Ethereum exchange balances fell by approximately 18% since June 3.
- The “Golden Cross” supports the bullish scenario, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.05 indicates an “overbought” condition.
## Ethereum faces its first real test
Ethereum’s price has come a long way from the June support level at $1,510, where a “double bottom” pattern formed. The rebound took a long time; the coin struggled around the pattern’s neckline from mid-July to mid-August, but late August finally saw a breakout that pushed Ethereum to $2,535.
The chart now has a clearer bullish structure, with a “golden cross” forming between the 50- and 200-day exponential moving averages—an important technical shift that could support a long-term uptrend if real follow-through demand is present.
This last point remains important, as Ethereum is currently wrestling with the $2,383–$2,495 range, which has been acting as a supply zone (resistance). If the price can hold above this zone and flip it into a demand zone (support), then September could be especially interesting, with two key upcoming targets: $2,791 and $3,381.
But if this range is lost, the scenario becomes far less exciting, as a wave of selling in Ethereum could pull it back to the 200-day exponential moving average at around $2,150.
## Exchange balances tell a different story
There is also something unusual happening away from the chart. Ethereum balances on exchanges fell from about 7.69 million coins on June 3 to about 6.28 million on August 27—down by roughly 18%.
The pullback did not stop during the uptrend wave: after August 19, an additional 275,000 ETH units left exchanges, bringing balances to their lowest levels during this period.
Notably, timing is hard to ignore: Ethereum is up by about 27% since August 16, meaning that exchange outflows continued while the price was rising rather than falling.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin balances on exchanges moved in the opposite direction, rising by about 0.25% during the same 12-week period.
## Ethereum indicators reflect strength and exhaustion at the same time
The artistic picture is not entirely one-sided either, as the MACD indicator is rising, the AO histogram is improving, and the golden cross confirms and strengthens the upward pressure.
But the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78.05 signals “overbought,” and the Money Flow Index (CMF) at around 0.33 is also nearing its peak. These readings suggest the rally may need a “cool-off” before another sustained uptrend wave.
## Summary
For Ethereum’s price, everything now hinges on the $2,383–$2,495 range. If it holds while demand increases, it could revisit levels like $2,791 and then $3,381. With bullish speculative momentum continuing, these levels become the focus—but losing this range could drive the price to drop toward the 200-day moving average near $2,150.