At the end of 2024, while chatting with a friend, I mentioned that this round of Bitcoin could reach 120,000. I don't quite remember why I made that judgment back then, but unexpectedly, a few days ago, this friend came to me with a screenshot, accidentally showing off, haha.
Then let's continue to talk about my current views on $BTC and $ETH ,
First, let's talk about BTC. The current Bitcoin is a macro asset that has been re-priced by institutions, rather than just a trading product that used to be driven by halving and sentiment. The ETF has removed some of BTC's volatility, resulting not in an immediate surge, but in a continuously elevated bottom. You will notice a change: when bad news comes out, the drop isn't as severe as before; the sideways trading period has also become longer. This isn't weakness; rather, it’s due to a change in the chip structure. In the short term, if macro liquidity doesn't show a clear easing, BTC may continue to experience a grinding market, but it seems more like it’s preparing for the next pricing reassessment. I see many people wanting to get another large Bitcoin at 30,000, but in my view, that is quite unlikely.
The logic of ETH is even more subtle. The biggest problem with ETH now is that the narrative has not been told all at once. BTC is digital gold, simple and straightforward, while ETH wants to be a settlement layer, a yield asset, and an application base at the same time. The market does not know which model to use to price it. But this is precisely the opportunity point. Once ETF, on-chain real yields, and L2 settlement value start to be placed on the same balance sheet, the elasticity of ETH will be much greater than that of BTC. It may not necessarily rise first, but once it breaks out, it is often a combination of catch-up and super rise.
One of my core judgments is: in this round of the market, BTC determines the height, and ETH determines the slope. If BTC stabilizes, the entire market will not collapse; if ETH starts, market sentiment will truly warm up. In the short term, ETH may continue to be undervalued and disliked, but as long as the on-chain cash flow logic has not been falsified, this slow heat will actually be more friendly for the mid-term.
In simple terms: BTC is slowly being accumulated as the future standard asset, while ETH is waiting for a moment that can connect all value clues. It may not be stimulating now, but often this phase is the key time that determines the position of an entire cycle.