叮当 Doraemon

🌙 As the night grows quieter, a cup of clear tea settles the restlessness within 🍃

The noise of rise and fall on the board will eventually end 📊,
and the cultivation of trading is hidden between choosing and waiting 🕯️.
Don’t obsess over daily gains or losses—learn to stop at the right time and reflect in calmness.
Opportunities never fail to appear; only by staying steady and focused can you see the cycle ✨.
Simplify and let go of the unnecessary, stick to your trading principles, and quietly wait for your moment 💎.
Wishing fellow travelers: let go of impatience, and keep your heart in harmony 🌌

#交易心理

#原油涨至7月来最高

#1688家族family

💥People often mistakenly believe that the wisdom of the “Tao Te Ching” is passive retreat, lying flat, doing nothing. In fact, that’s not the case. What Laozi meant by “wu wei” (“non-action”) does not mean doing nothing; it means not acting chaotically, not acting blindly, and not forcing things. In life, one should have something to do—stay grounded, work diligently, and strive to do every task well. One should also know when not to do certain things—hold to your true intentions, keep your moral bottom line, and never do what violates the natural order or righteousness. Acting in accordance with the times is wisdom; knowing contentment and knowing when to stop is clarity; being yielding and not contending is magnanimity.

#比特币ETF年内仍缺10亿美元 #加拿大对美关税正式生效

💥People often mistakenly believe that the wisdom of the “Tao Te Ching” is passive retreat, lying flat, doing nothing. In fact, that’s not the case. What Laozi meant by “wu wei” (“non-action”) does not mean doing nothing; it means not acting chaotically, not acting blindly, and not forcing things. In life, one should have something to do—stay grounded, work diligently, and strive to do every task well. One should also know when not to do certain things—hold to your true intentions, keep your moral bottom line, and never do what violates the natural order or righteousness. Acting in accordance with the times is wisdom; knowing contentment and knowing when to stop is clarity; being yielding and not contending is magnanimity.

#比特币ETF年内仍缺10亿美元 #加拿大对美关税正式生效

Australian Compliance Project TITAN Pay｜Binance Square AMA Special Event Rolls Out
On September 10th, tomorrow evening at 8:00 PM, tune in to the 520 Long Xing Tian Xia livestream ✨
Time: 20:30–24:00
We’ll engage in an in-depth discussion on global stablecoin payments, and break down why crypto payments are the fourth payment revolution.
Join industry partners to talk about opportunities and challenges in Hong Kong’s stablecoin issuance, with plenty of interactive giveaways on-site 🎁

1. BTC is ranging between 77,800–79,200 (RMB), and has not yet reclaimed the 790,000 level. The market is waiting for Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI.

2. ETH is hovering around 2,490; SOL is around 103. Altcoins are diverging: ZEC is strong, while WLD/MORPHO are weak.

3. Brent is edging toward $100 intraday. Attacks by Iran/Iranian-linked forces + the Houthis on Saudi facilities have heightened geopolitical risk, weighing on risk assets.

4. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is about 60%. 10Y U.S. Treasuries are near 4.8%. A stronger dollar is bearish for crypto and gold in the short term.

5. Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $47 million yesterday. IBIT/BITB/ARKB had inflows, while GBTC is lagging.

6. ETH ETFs posted small net outflows as well. XRP ETFs bucked the trend, attracting about $2 million; capital is selecting specific targets to buy.

7. Zcash (ZEC): Grayscale’s ZCSH assets broke through $500 million. Privacy coins remain one of the strongest narratives in a weak market.

8. RWA/stablecoins continue to outperform: bank-backed euro stablecoins, an Uzbekistan pilot, and Circle’s cross-border payments expansion.

9. Block has applied to the OCC for a national trust bank charter, aiming to provide BTC + stablecoin custody—an additional step for institutional infrastructure.

10. Robinhood is betting on prediction markets, connecting with Crypto.com/OG.com. Exchanges are looking for incremental growth in “non-crypto” business.

11. The Liquid Network security incident is unfolding. BTC L2 security audits and custody trust are back in focus.

12. HYPE’s unlock selling pressure hasn’t fully cleared. Multicoin is accused of selling about 1.725M HYPE since the end of July, netting $77 million in profit.

13. Derivatives longs hold a slight edge (BTC long/short ratio about 1.11), but a break above 81,000 could trigger liquidation of nearly $860 million in short positions.

14. Copper on the LME hit a record high of $14,779 per ton intraday. AI + power grids + EVs + Chile disruptions are drawing commodities to absorb some speculative capital.

15. Gold first sold off then rallied: spot gold has returned to 4,400. The narrative has shifted from “safe-haven” to “rate-hike pressure vs central bank gold buying.”

16. Supply disruptions in rare earths/antimony/tungsten plus Middle East oil prices. Capital preference: crude oil, copper, rare earths, and precious/rare metals > high-FDV altcoins.

17. Total crypto market cap is about $2.7–2.8 trillion. The Altcoin Season Index is 47/100—still not at a full altcoin season.

This isn’t a “bull-market pullback”—it’s a “macros tied-up period.” As long as oil prices/CPI/Fed don’t clear, BTC is hard to trade directionally.

Underestimated Risks in the U.S. Midterm Elections?

The market is seriously underestimating the risk that the results of the U.S. midterm elections could be challenged, triggering political and legal disputes. At the same time, hedging costs on Wall Street have fallen to their lowest level of the year, and the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options for November has dropped below 15%, creating a low-cost window to buy protection early.

The probability that the election results could be disputed, or even spark political turmoil, is being severely underestimated by the market, and current pricing in the options market does not fully reflect this tail risk.

As the market calmed in August, the implied volatility of S&P 500 put options has fallen significantly from its July highs. The calmer the market, the cheaper protection becomes; but once election risk is truly priced into assets, volatility could rise rapidly, and the cost of hedging at that point would increase markedly.

The core logic is built on the current polling situation. Polls generally show Trump’s approval rating slipping, Democrats likely to regain control of the House, and Republicans expected to keep their Senate majority.

What the market is truly overlooking is not the election result itself, but the political and legal disputes that could emerge if the result is challenged. If the final outcome is unfavorable to Trump, the market is severely underestimating the likelihood that Trump would react strongly and challenge results in certain districts.

In that scenario, Trump may launch legal challenges to every “contested” district, delaying the certification process and triggering a wave of media coverage around disputes such as “what happens next” and claims that the election was “stolen.”

This political uncertainty could ultimately spill over into financial markets and drive volatility sharply higher. For markets, the most dangerous outcome is not necessarily that one side wins, but that the election result remains unconfirmed for an extended period, creating persistent uncertainty.