Finally waited for the right moment for the big pie to enter the market. I’m going long on 803. I set my stop loss at 793. Tonight, I’ll see whether the ETF can be strong enough to break through 830. I took a look at the ETF over this period—it's been all nonstop buying. Tonight, I’ll keep buying too, and see if it can break through 830. I think when the European session opens at 3 p.m. this afternoon, the big pie will start going nonstop. It’s just that I don’t know how far it’ll run—will it break through 812, or like the past few days, it’ll directly pump 2000–3000 points, smashing through 830!
I think if I lose 1000, I’ll go for 2700 points. The risk-reward ratio is 1:2.7. I think the trading logic is very worthwhile. If my judgment is wrong and I get hit, then I’ll just accept it.
I’m very rarely involved in short positions. Guessing the top or guessing the bottom is very difficult and doesn’t have replicability. Following the trend is where you can make more money, and it’s also less likely to get you wiped out.
Some coin friends have already started contacting me, asking whether I can teach contracts. Sorry, I don’t teach contracts with BTB research—I only teach spot trading. If you can’t make money with spot, you’ll die even faster with contracts. For example, this wave of上涨 (rally) is something I predicted in advance would go up, but I didn’t expect it to surge this much. Still, it doesn’t affect the spot holdings of the big pie I’m holding—I even hope it directly pumps to 126 in September. So inside, there’s no real emotional fluctuation.
But if you went to open a short at the start of the breakout from 650–670, now you’d be miserable. Whether it’s the big pie or the altcoins, if you misread the direction, what contract are you even trading? You’re also not getting the trend right. And if you trade contracts without a stop loss, you’ll definitely end up losing money—so there’s no need to learn contracts. Just do spot properly.
That said, I have to admit: contracts—if you really do them properly, and you can keep generating profits—don’t require much capital. With 100 oil, 1000 oil, with a win rate of 50% or even 40%, as long as the risk-reward ratio is guaranteed at 1:3: do three trades, win one and lose two. Suppose you lose once by 100 oil and win once by 300 oil. Based on the win rate, lose two trades: 200 oil lost, win one trade: 300 oil gained—net profit 100 oil. Improving your win rate and risk-reward ratio at the advanced stage; once you’re advanced to the 18-grid level and you can eat both with-trend and against-trend setups, as long as you can maintain this rhythm and make it your friend in terms of time, I can’t say it leads to financial freedom—but at least there will be enough for “meal allowance.”
That’s the whole path for trading contracts—the ultimate method. If you can’t understand it, or you don’t have this kind of mindset yet, I still recommend not touching contracts. You’ll lose everything.
$BTC
I think if I lose 1000, I’ll go for 2700 points. The risk-reward ratio is 1:2.7. I think the trading logic is very worthwhile. If my judgment is wrong and I get hit, then I’ll just accept it.
I’m very rarely involved in short positions. Guessing the top or guessing the bottom is very difficult and doesn’t have replicability. Following the trend is where you can make more money, and it’s also less likely to get you wiped out.
Some coin friends have already started contacting me, asking whether I can teach contracts. Sorry, I don’t teach contracts with BTB research—I only teach spot trading. If you can’t make money with spot, you’ll die even faster with contracts. For example, this wave of上涨 (rally) is something I predicted in advance would go up, but I didn’t expect it to surge this much. Still, it doesn’t affect the spot holdings of the big pie I’m holding—I even hope it directly pumps to 126 in September. So inside, there’s no real emotional fluctuation.
But if you went to open a short at the start of the breakout from 650–670, now you’d be miserable. Whether it’s the big pie or the altcoins, if you misread the direction, what contract are you even trading? You’re also not getting the trend right. And if you trade contracts without a stop loss, you’ll definitely end up losing money—so there’s no need to learn contracts. Just do spot properly.
That said, I have to admit: contracts—if you really do them properly, and you can keep generating profits—don’t require much capital. With 100 oil, 1000 oil, with a win rate of 50% or even 40%, as long as the risk-reward ratio is guaranteed at 1:3: do three trades, win one and lose two. Suppose you lose once by 100 oil and win once by 300 oil. Based on the win rate, lose two trades: 200 oil lost, win one trade: 300 oil gained—net profit 100 oil. Improving your win rate and risk-reward ratio at the advanced stage; once you’re advanced to the 18-grid level and you can eat both with-trend and against-trend setups, as long as you can maintain this rhythm and make it your friend in terms of time, I can’t say it leads to financial freedom—but at least there will be enough for “meal allowance.”
That’s the whole path for trading contracts—the ultimate method. If you can’t understand it, or you don’t have this kind of mindset yet, I still recommend not touching contracts. You’ll lose everything.
$BTC
