MSTR is now around 117.7. In the past 24 hours it rallied 9 points. The top at 116.3 that I said to go short on earlier was directly broken through—topping out at 118.86.
First, the conclusion: This time I won’t flip short. I recognize the upside direction, but I won’t chase at this level.
Let’s start with the money side. Spot trading over the last 24 hours was 370 million USDT. In the futures, the percentage of aggressive buying is 55%, with buy volume pressing over sell volume. Aggressive trades spiked for 7 hours, with volume up to 76%. Open interest also lifted along with the price. This rally is driven by volume and price working together—it’s not a short squeeze rally.
Price is sitting above MA20/MA50. On both the 4-hour and daily charts, the structure is still bullish.
However, the risk is also visible. As price pushes up, the big players’ long positions fell by almost 10% over 7 hours. The proportion of long accounts is also trending downward. In the order book, the 20-level asks are even thicker than the bids—those who know the market best are starting to step back at higher levels. The funding rate is only 0.013%, not yet overheated, which suggests the longs haven’t been fully crowded yet—there is still room to move higher.
So my plan is: keep the bullish direction, but don’t chase. If there’s a pullback to around the MA20 near 116 and it can hold there, then we’ll look for upside to new highs. If it breaks down and takes out 114, then we’ll talk differently. For a stock that has just broken out, waiting for a pullback to confirm before getting in is more comfortable than chasing at 118.
#mstr $MSTR
First, the conclusion: This time I won’t flip short. I recognize the upside direction, but I won’t chase at this level.
Let’s start with the money side. Spot trading over the last 24 hours was 370 million USDT. In the futures, the percentage of aggressive buying is 55%, with buy volume pressing over sell volume. Aggressive trades spiked for 7 hours, with volume up to 76%. Open interest also lifted along with the price. This rally is driven by volume and price working together—it’s not a short squeeze rally.
Price is sitting above MA20/MA50. On both the 4-hour and daily charts, the structure is still bullish.
However, the risk is also visible. As price pushes up, the big players’ long positions fell by almost 10% over 7 hours. The proportion of long accounts is also trending downward. In the order book, the 20-level asks are even thicker than the bids—those who know the market best are starting to step back at higher levels. The funding rate is only 0.013%, not yet overheated, which suggests the longs haven’t been fully crowded yet—there is still room to move higher.
So my plan is: keep the bullish direction, but don’t chase. If there’s a pullback to around the MA20 near 116 and it can hold there, then we’ll look for upside to new highs. If it breaks down and takes out 114, then we’ll talk differently. For a stock that has just broken out, waiting for a pullback to confirm before getting in is more comfortable than chasing at 118.
#mstr $MSTR