Most people who look at cooperation-news like NPEX basically glance at the numbers when the announcement goes out, then move on. No one goes back to check whether that figure has really been increasing. That habit itself may cause people to miss more interesting information.
When it was officially announced in February, the scale of the NPEX track was 200 million euros. After that, in the website’s continually updated data, that number has risen to more than 300 million euros. Between them there’s been a gap of about half a year; the figure went up by roughly 50%. This growth wasn’t packaged as a separate “major cooperation announcement” by itself—it was quietly reflected in the website’s aggregated data updates.
My own judgment is that one-off cooperation announcement numbers can easily create the illusion that “this has already been finalized.” But what truly indicates whether the business is healthy is whether that number keeps moving upward. If, after NPEX had been live for half a year, the scale remained completely unchanged, it would suggest the model might only have completed a one-time transfer of assets, with no subsequent incremental addition. What we’re seeing now is continued growth—at least this suggests it’s not a one-time transfer, but an active pipeline that is still bringing assets in. This signal is more worth watching than the announcement itself, because announcements can only prove “it’s started,” while continued growth can demonstrate “it’s operating normally.”
That said, I can’t confirm how much of this 50% increase is due to new assets coming in versus accounting/book changes caused by valuation increases of existing assets. The website’s aggregated data doesn’t break it down to that level of granularity, so this is something I can’t calculate clearly at the moment.
What do you think—when assessing the health of this kind of cooperation, should we focus on the number at the moment the announcement is released, or should we keep tracking whether that number grows afterward?
#dusk $DUSK @Dusk
When it was officially announced in February, the scale of the NPEX track was 200 million euros. After that, in the website’s continually updated data, that number has risen to more than 300 million euros. Between them there’s been a gap of about half a year; the figure went up by roughly 50%. This growth wasn’t packaged as a separate “major cooperation announcement” by itself—it was quietly reflected in the website’s aggregated data updates.
My own judgment is that one-off cooperation announcement numbers can easily create the illusion that “this has already been finalized.” But what truly indicates whether the business is healthy is whether that number keeps moving upward. If, after NPEX had been live for half a year, the scale remained completely unchanged, it would suggest the model might only have completed a one-time transfer of assets, with no subsequent incremental addition. What we’re seeing now is continued growth—at least this suggests it’s not a one-time transfer, but an active pipeline that is still bringing assets in. This signal is more worth watching than the announcement itself, because announcements can only prove “it’s started,” while continued growth can demonstrate “it’s operating normally.”
That said, I can’t confirm how much of this 50% increase is due to new assets coming in versus accounting/book changes caused by valuation increases of existing assets. The website’s aggregated data doesn’t break it down to that level of granularity, so this is something I can’t calculate clearly at the moment.
What do you think—when assessing the health of this kind of cooperation, should we focus on the number at the moment the announcement is released, or should we keep tracking whether that number grows afterward?
#dusk $DUSK @Dusk
A. 该持续跟踪,一次性数字容易营造假象
B. 公告数字够用,持续追踪意义不大
C. 两个都要$看,起点和增速共同说明问题
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